my prediction on the photonics/laser stuff is, there will be more and more SiPho as we add more lanes and need better mux/demux, TFLN is not gonna win for 400G per lane although you hear it a lot, as some folks already made it working on SiPho and the TFLN price and volume won't be even close to beating SiPho. DSP will be dominated by broadcom and then marvell for a long time, but SiPho is just so much easier to design and make, and the Chinese companies will be taping out most of the SiPho chips and making all the way to various engines and modules. Laser moat of the US companies won't last long, it's not that complicated, and more similar to e.g. battery optimization than complex digital circuit design, and Chinese companies already make most of the andriod and lidar vcsel chips, some of them pretty high power and spec. They control most of In and InP production as well. US laser companies will have to and are already building InP fabs in SEA, theres no In or In purification in the US. If I know more chemistry, I would start an ITO recycling company now.

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

Probably best to stay long guys: $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: "Everything across the supply chain...is in shortage" Memory, wafers, advanced packaging, SiPho, and cable connectors. Diamond hands.

Mizuho: Memory, CPO, 800VDC > Memory Bottlenecks & De-spec Risks: Potential significant DRAM de-spec risks are driving investor concern. GPU/ASIC OEMs may cap future HBM content at 4-8Hi, making 12Hi less appealing, while 16Hi/20Hi and hybrid bonding remain uncertain for future DRAM generations. > Impact on Shipments & Demand: GOOGL has scaled down TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi. Lower DRAM/GPU content could allow roughly 20-30% more GPU/ASIC shipments, driving higher aggregate DRAM bit demand for training, inference, and KVCache, alongside better margins. > Connectivity and Hardware Upside: Copper, NPO SiPho, and InP show upside for CRDO and LITE, whereas CPO is roughly 2 to 3 years away. A less-constrained memory environment points to upside for GPU/ASIC shipments and rack scale-up/out connectivity. > 800V Ramp Delays: Potential 800V delays are allowing for a smoother ramp. Data center installers are pushing back due to near-term power space changes and the need for personnel retraining, with DC racks moving toward OCP ORv3 Diablo bipolar dual-rail 400V racks. (Via @sean_________) $CRDO $LITE $GOOGL $NVDA $MU $DRAM $EWY

Mizuho on SemiAnalysis (rumor mill) channel checks: "Significant Feynman de-spec risk (potentially ~50%). 16/20Hi HBM + hybrid bonding still highly uncertain. GOOGL already scaled TPUv8 HBM3e to 8Hi." "Lower HBM content per GPU/ASIC = 20-30% more shipments possible. Aggregate DRAM bit demand for training/inference/KVCache actually rises. Better GPU/ASIC margins." "That extra silicon volume is pure upside for copper AEC, NPO, SiPho/InP. $CRDO and $LITE the clearest beneficiaries. CPO still 2-3 years out." "800V looks delayed — data centers pushing back hard on rapid power architecture change + staff retraining. Moving to OCP ORv3 Diablo 400V bipolar instead. More VRMs, smoother ramp." "2027 is still a monster year: xAI/ $SPCX 10GW + the $500B Neocloud financing facility = real tailwind. $GOOGL morphing into a major Neocloud supplier with accelerating TPU ramps. Mizuho modestly cuts PTs ( $MU $1,300 / $SNDK $1,875 / AMAT $590 / MKSI $330 / LRCX $365) on multiple compression from the de-spec uncertainty — but still sees memory tight and overall bit demand higher. Net: de-spec is real, but it unlocks more systems, more copper, more optics, and keeps the 2027 power + financing flywheel intact.