Same $2B. Same template. But the $COHR and $LITE NVDA deals were not the same deal. COHR: laser AND optical networking products. LITE: advanced laser components only. $COHR Q3 FY26 is where that line first showed in +27% revenue and the $50B+ SAM reset.

At $122.90, most of the upside is already in the price. $AXTI has nearly tripled since my March 2 deep dive. People called it expensive then too. It kept running. The Trump delegation is in Beijing this week meeting Xi. Tariff relief or any real trade thaw would push the stock higher. The room for a clean upside surprise looks narrow from here. Sell the news is a real risk. A full rollback of export controls is not on the table. Gallium, germanium, and indium phosphide are China's counter-leverage against US equipment restrictions. Beijing won't give those up at a summit. What's plausible is lower tariffs and faster permit processing. Either alone is enough for a constructive short-term view. The fundamentals haven't changed, and that's what matters. InP substrates are the material foundation for the lasers that move data inside AI clusters. No InP, no high-speed optical transceivers. No transceivers, no scale-up across GPUs, racks, or data centers. Silicon photonics does not replace InP. It needs InP lasers bonded onto silicon to work. As silicon photonics scales, InP demand goes up, not down.

$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant. They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics. So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives. The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU. This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments: To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background. But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives. But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.

If you have been reading PhotonCap from the start, you know these names. IQE and AXT from the substrate series. Coherent from the subsea cable series. All three appear again in this article. III-V compound semiconductor is the material tier connecting optical communications, satellites, subsea cables, and defense. The same InP, GaAs, and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars, and IR sensors. This article shows how those materials become money in defense sensors, mapped across 28 listed companies. On the first day of war, platforms rally. When war drags on, sensors make the money.

At $122.90, most of the upside is already in the price. $AXTI has nearly tripled since my March 2 deep dive. People called it expensive then too. It kept running. The Trump delegation is in Beijing this week meeting Xi. Tariff relief or any real trade thaw would push the stock higher. The room for a clean upside surprise looks narrow from here. Sell the news is a real risk. A full rollback of export controls is not on the table. Gallium, germanium, and indium phosphide are China's counter-leverage against US equipment restrictions. Beijing won't give those up at a summit. What's plausible is lower tariffs and faster permit processing. Either alone is enough for a constructive short-term view. The fundamentals haven't changed, and that's what matters. InP substrates are the material foundation for the lasers that move data inside AI clusters. No InP, no high-speed optical transceivers. No transceivers, no scale-up across GPUs, racks, or data centers. Silicon photonics does not replace InP. It needs InP lasers bonded onto silicon to work. As silicon photonics scales, InP demand goes up, not down.