Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now). Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past. Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long. Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always. Not advice, just sharing my thinking.

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