Kevin Gordon
@KevRGordon
Head of Macro Research and Strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research Disclosures:
414 Following 30.8K Followers
The 10y Treasury yield is on track for its largest monthly increase since October 2024 ... also working on its 7th consecutive monthly gain, which has not happened since the end of 2010 into 2011
Show more
Consumer sentiment getting further pinned down by the spike in gasoline prices
The increasingly likely scenario is that the Fed will have to create restrictive enough conditions to slow what looks like a runaway business investment train (for now)
Business investment is just fine. Core cap goods shipments +11.5% y/y in August
The spread between the S&P 500's earnings yield and 10y Treasury yield has made a new 24-year low
2024: Fed cuts rates and mortgage rates go up
2026: Fed hikes rates and mortgage rates are still going up
Dow Transports at the lowest since April 6th
(past performance is no guarantee of future results)
Looking for investor questions!
For an upcoming video series, I'll be answering your biggest questions about the bond market and fixed income investing—from the Fed outlook, what's happening with Treasury yields, and where there may be opportunities today.
I want to address the questions that are top of mind for you. Please share your questions in the comments, and let me know what fixed income topics you'd like to see covered.
Show more
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index bucks the weaker regional Fed trends with headline activity rising to +14 in September … new orders, shipments, and production were all stronger; but prices paid spiked to the highest since June
via Bloomberg
Show more
2y Treasury yield at the 5% doorstep
The market needs a breadth mint … S&P 500’s cumulative advance-decline line fell yesterday to its lowest since mid-May
Volatility yesterday was concentrated in the bond market, with the MOVE Index seeing its largest daily increase since March … VIX’s move was rather muted
My new WashingtonWise podcast is out. @CollinMartinCS joins me to talk about the bond market, the Fed rate hike, Treasury's buyback program, his outlook for rates and fixed-income investing heading into 2027 and more. Give it a listen!
Show more
Decent bounce (+6.4%) for new home sales in August … every region saw an increase, median price moved up by 0.4% m/m but average price fell by 9.1%
Per @CarnegieEndow analysis, China is winning the global AI talent race. Compared to 2022, the share of Chinese-origin AI talent increased 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025, while the U.S. share fell to 13%.
China’s postgrad share is 41% vs. the U.S.’ 34%.
Show more
So far this year, only the S&P 500 Energy sector has a positive correlation with the 10y Treasury yield
We are indeed seeing 10y yield increases consistent with what happened during/after Liberation Day, but a key difference today (for now) is that the dollar (red line) is moving higher
Show more
Initial jobless claims down to 197k, bringing the 4w average to 202.3k
While we have seen this level of yields before and some say we are just back in the "old normal," I think what sometimes gets lost in the discourse is the speed with which rates have moved higher ... we haven't seen this kind of 5-year increase in the 10y yield since the '80s
Show more
The Bloomberg Commodity Index that includes agriculture, livestock, energy, and copper is up by 44.9% year/year ... that is on pace with the increases seen in 2021-2022, 2008, 2003, and 2000
Show more
