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Nonzee
@0xNonceSense
Macro & Crypto | On-chain research | Only alpha
Joined September 2021
436 Following    104.4K Followers
๐Ÿšจ SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps trying to push higher. OpenAI and Anthropic are now worth $2.1T. That is 10% of the entire Nasdaq. Look at the math: โ€“ $450B burned per year โ€“ $50B in actual revenue The entire AI bull case depends on one assumption: Inference gets cheaper. That is how funds justify the math. Spend massively today, scale later, margins explode when inference costs collapse. But that assumption is breaking: - Memory is getting expensive. - Compute is not getting cheap fast enough. - Inference is not falling the way everyone modeled. And if inference does not get dramatically cheaper, the whole AI margin story starts to crack. The loop is obvious: โ€“ Big players fund each other โ€“ Partnerships look perfect on paper โ€“ Revenue moves around inside the same system Everyone calls it growth. I call it the final stage of mania. In 2000, companies added โ€œ.comโ€ to the name and valuations exploded: โ€“ Small profits โ€“ Massive valuations โ€“ Perfect stories Then reality hit. Nasdaq collapsed 80%. Now companies add โ€œAIโ€ to the name and reprice instantly: โ€“ Small profits โ€“ Massive valuations โ€“ Perfect AI stories This is the dot-com bubble with better AI branding. And bubbles do not warn you before they break. They break when everyone thinks the story is untouchable. The next move wonโ€™t wait for you. Follow and turn notifications on.
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