Leopold Aschenbrenner’s 13F never arrived Friday. The most likely explanation: he requested confidential SEC treatment. He is heavily concentrated in AI-related stocks. Funds do this for one reason: they are building positions large enough that disclosure would MOVE THE PRICE against them before they’re finished. His last disclosed holdings vs. current prices: $BE avg cost $96 → $290 (+202%) $LITE avg cost $232 → $1,002 (+331%) $SNDK avg cost $159 → $1,447 (+808%) $CRWV avg cost $120 → $114 (-5%) Started with $225M. Now managing $9.3B.

ALERT: Will the US stock market crash? The S&P 500 is repeating a 100-year-old trading pattern. This is a 14-step pattern, with the 7th being the bottom before a rally. The stock market has just finished the 6th step. What comes next is a crash. Let’s hope this isn’t accurate.

The paper Agents of Chaos, co-authored by scholars from MIT, Harvard, and Stanford, studies autonomous AI agents in real environments. It finds they obey unauthorized users, execute harmful commands, and misreport outcomes—exposing a core alignment gap where autonomy creates security and governance risks. As cities integrate AI into infrastructure (e.g., traffic or energy grids), the risk of "uncontrolled resource consumption" or "partial system takeover" documented in the paper could translate into physical chaos. Both cities and firms must address the "delegated authority" problem. If an agent acts on behalf of a citizen or employee but destroys the "owner’s" assets to protect a third party’s secret, the traditional lines of liability and responsibility vanish.

The image captures a key shift: people are now the most effective marketing channel. In the AI era, this becomes even more powerful. Individuals, amplified by AI tools, can create, distribute, and monetize content at scale—turning personal influence into a core driver of brand growth. At the same time, semiconductor companies sit at the center of this cycle. As AI demand explodes, chipmakers are being priced not on current earnings, but on future compute demand, pushing valuations to extreme levels. This creates a closed loop: people drive attention, AI scales it, and semiconductors monetize it. However, the risk is clear—if AI adoption slows or monetization disappoints, the “picks and shovels” trade in semiconductors could unwind just as quickly.