Jeremy Grantham: The Drapes Don't Match the Curtains.
I watched Jeremy Grantham on Diary of a CEO and CNBC. Joe Kernen pushed back on a lot of it, but one thing Jeremy said caught my attention.
He mentioned that he's given 90-95% of his wealth to the Grantham Foundation.
So I thought, "Alright... let's see how Jeremy Grantham actually invests Jeremy Grantham's money."
I pulled the Foundation's 990.
This is where the story gets interesting.
The Foundation has about $782 million in assets.
Roughly:
$536M in venture funds and private companies
$115M in public equities
$78M cash
$32M other investments
$20M receivables
This isn't some sleepy index portfolio.
It's a complicated institutional portfolio built around active manager selection, private markets and frontier technology.
The venture managers alone are basically a who's who of elite VC:
Thrive, Lux (five different funds), Founders Fund, Flagship, Foundation Capital, FirstMark, Lakestar, Formation8, Arch, Atlas, Threshold (DFJ), Greycroft, Lowercarbon, Technology Impact, Eclipse, The Engine, Owl, Susa, Accomplice, Rincon... and a lot more.
These aren't vanilla managers. They're some of the best investors in AI, software, robotics, biotech, climate tech, semiconductors, defense tech and frontier technology anywhere in the world. Most people couldn't get an allocation if they tried.
Several of them also have meaningful exposure to SpaceX or the broader space economy, which is pretty funny considering how dismissive Jeremy was of SpaceX in the interview.
Then there are the direct investments:
Fervo Energy.
Zap Energy.
QuantumScape.
Oxide Computer.
Via Separations.
Lilac Solutions.
Radiant.
GreenLight Biosciences.
InventWood.
Carbon Ridge.
Again... this doesn't exactly scream "hide under the bed."
Even the public equity portfolio isn't exactly boring:
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (AI drug discovery)
Oscar Health
Instacart
Evolv Technologies
ACV Auctions
Sana Biotechnology
Riskified
Now compare that to the message he's selling:
"Sell US tech."
"Don't own US stocks."
"AI is the biggest bubble in history."
"SpaceX is a BS story."
"Just buy index funds."
Here's my issue.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way he's investing. Honestly, I think it's a very thoughtful institutional portfolio and I'd happily own a lot of these managers myself.
But the portfolio doesn't match the sales pitch.
His own money isn't sitting in index funds or hiding in cash waiting for the apocalypse.
It's invested with some of the best venture capital firms in the world whose entire job is finding the next generation of technology winners.
That's a very different message than the one he's selling on TV.
Top-down he's a permabear.
Bottom-up he's paying elite venture investors to own frontier technology.
Those two stories don't really line up.
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