The Senate is marking up the Connected Vehicles Security Act tomorrow. This is a strong, bipartisan bill by @berniemoreno and @SenatorSlotkin that would strengthen U.S. national security. However, the Senate is considering watering it down to allow US companies to use car batteries that contain Chinese electronics or software. As I explain in the below white paper, drafted in response to outreach from a number of Senate offices asking for an evaluation of the risks of batteries with Chinese electronic components, watering this provision down would present a significant national security risk and would undercut the core objective of the connected vehicles rule. There is ample research that with full access to the software of a modern battery, it is straightforward to start a battery fire that quickly destroys the vehicle, and could cause catastrophic damage to the inhabitants or surrounding area. An adversary with this type of access could target individual Americans, or initiate many fires that cause mass disruption. This is exactly the type of outcome the connected vehicles rule intended to mitigate. It is logical and prudent that the current bill prohibits the sale of vehicles that contain batteries with Chinese electronic components. Watering this provision down would permit the continued use of certain batteries that pose clear risks to U.S. national security, while also making it more difficult to develop secure battery supply chains inside the United States.

What I said was it would triple the amount of AI compute China will bring online this year (not including illegally smuggled chips). The math on this checks out: Per public reports, China will make 750,000 Huawei Ascend 950PRs this year. Each 950PR is 500 TFLOPS FP16 in dense performance, so 750,000 Ascend 950PRs is 375 EFLOPS - that’s how much AI compute China will make without US chips (I’m assuming the vast majority of their AI chip production is Huawei, obviously there will be some from other companies but likely a much smaller number). As you noted, each Nvidia H200 is 989 TFLOPS FP16 in dense performance, so 750,000 H200s is 742 EFLOPS - that’s how much AI compute China would add from this US sale alone. 742 + 375 = 1,117 EFLOPs - that’s how much compute China would bring online total with domestic production and this US sale. 1,117 / 375 = 2.979x - that’s the multiple that this sale would increase the amount of AI compute that China brings online each year. I rounded up from 2.979 to 3. Next time before you make personal accusations about how much I have read and studied these issues, please at least go to the effort to read and listen to what I said a little more closely, to make sure you’re actually understanding my argument.

The administration needs to clarify this extremely damaging statement by the President right away. US policy has long been that we do not negotiate Taiwan arms sales with China. The administration cannot simultaneously claim that there has been no change to US policy over Taiwan, and that weapons sales to Taiwan are now a negotiating chip in discussions with China. Every single Democrat and Republican on Capitol Hill should press the White House on what the President meant by this, and urge them to finalize the sales. If President Biden had ever said this, Congressional Republicans would have lost their minds. I hope they’re making their voice heard now too.

These are by far the most detailed comments @POTUS has made on US-China AI competition. China never led, but he’s right the US is now way ahead. He expressed support for guardrails, but skepticism about what we can accomplish right now with China. This is the right perspective.

“The administration has issued licenses for 750,000 H200 chips, but those licenses are still stalled on the Chinese side. . . . It would triple China’s AI computing power capacity, if those were to go through,” says CFR expert Chris McGuire, discussing the stalled sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese companies during a media briefing on the Trump-Xi summit.

NEW: On May 13, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted a debate between me and @pstAsiatech on export controls, moderated by @EmilyKilcrease1. The question: are compute controls strategically advancing U.S. leadership in AI. Check out the video below!

Very thoughtful letter from @SenatorBanks on AI strategy and how to approach talks with China. Completely agree with the below test for when cooperation is in our interest. This is exactly what led to the agreement not to use AI for nuclear launch decisions in 2024, which had been U.S. policy since 2022. "There may be limited areas where it does make sense to engage in dialogue with Chinese officials. I would recommend a simple test: if it is in America’s national interest to adopt a given AI policy unilaterally due to security concerns, even if we knew the PRC may cheat, then it is worth engaging the Chinese on the possibility of reciprocal action."

NEW: From an office a few blocks from the White House, a group of former Wall Streeters known as “Deal Team Six” is at the forefront of the Pentagon’s plan to crack China’s critical-minerals stranglehold:

If the United States were to sell US AI chips to China in exchange for allowing China to purchase US chipmaking tools, that could legitimately be the single worst deal in the history of negotiations. It would make the Dutch purchase of Manhattan for $24 look like an overpay.

Every bad argument the Trump administration and tech billionaires make against regulating AI begins with "we can't let China win the AI race" and then they sell China the chips it needs to win the race.

To explain: Huawei plans to ship 750,000 Ascend 950PR AI chips this year. Each 950PR has half the computing power and half the memory bandwidth of the H200. Selling 750,000 H200s to China on top of its existing 950PR production gives it the equivalent of 2,250,000 Ascend 950PRs.

This is a complete own goal. It would triple the amount of AI computing power that China adds next year - before taking into account illegal smuggling. And it would divert scarce AI compute resources away from U.S. firms. This will help China close the gap with the U.S. in AI.