New newsletter: THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE AI BUBBLE APOCALYPSE I am neither anti-AI nor certain that AI is a bubble. But the last four weeks have made clear that the AI buildout now faces a very clear quadruple-headed risk hydra. 1. A spending risk, as the hyperscalers run low on cash and take on $170b in annual debt—which is more than the projected UK deficit. 2. A revenue risk, as open-weight models threaten to compress the margins of frontier labs ... and as AI become the sort of internationally competitive asset-heavy industry requiring stable and determined long-term policy consistency, which is arguably China's competitive advantage. 3. A political risk, as anti-AI populism becomes one of the easiest applause lines, even as AI becomes a more and more foundational pillar of US economic growth 4. A technological risk, as the frontier labs bear down on RSI, which I think could significantly change the basic business model of the labs, as compute costs rise and rise for a set of super-advanced models that are fit for, and affordable to, a small minority of users (in, eg, cyber security) In one sentence: The capabilities of AI are becoming more powerful, while some economic underpinnings of the AI buildout—and, as we’ll discuss, the political support for AI—are becoming more vulnerable. Today's (long, 5k word) piece deeply considers each risk and also—because over-confidence in this space is typically a sign that you're not thinking hard enough—I offer the strongest reason to think each risk might be overblown.