A bullish options market is not the same as bullish demand.
$9.6B in Bitcoin options expired Friday with calls outnumbering puts roughly 3.5 to 1 and max pain near $64,000. Traders were positioned for upside. Spot buyers were not showing the same conviction.
Even after $233M flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday, July’s total stood at about $438M through July 30, following nearly $7B of outflows in May and June.
Bitcoin falling below $63,000 after expiry does not prove options were holding it near $64,000. But it exposes the gap between bullish positioning and the demand needed to sustain it.
Until ETF inflows strengthen, any rebound will still rely more on derivatives positioning than sustained spot demand.