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Jeff Weinstein 🇺🇸
@Jeffreyw5000
Investing in online marketplace startups @FJLabs. Class 24 at @KauffmanFellows. 🏃🏻‍♂️🏃🏻‍♂️🏃🏻‍♂️🏃🏻‍♂️. Views my own, likes/RTs not endorsements (duh!)
4.8K Following    3.9K Followers
Day 2 is Live: Watch humanoid robots Bob, Frank, and Gary running 24/7. This is fully autonomous running Helix-02
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This is so amazing.
Watch a team of humanoid robots running a full 8-hr shift at human performance levels. This is fully autonomous running Helix-02
Generational run of silencing the haters. LFG.
Texting the film crew, livestream tomorrow
Amazing!
新しいリアルタイム翻訳モデルを発表できることをうれしく思います。ぜひ本日よりAPIでお試しください。
What an astonishing picture. This is where the reservoir and the bridle path sit today! And these are the same buildings that sit on Central Park West to this day (except for the red one) A healthy reminder to the nostalgia-maxxers out there that we live in blessed times.
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A colorized photo of Central Park during the Great Depression, New York (1933)
Omg….Catch Me If You Can was a fabrication?!?
A man invented a $2.5 MILLION crime spree, sold it to Hollywood and charged $30,000 per speech to explain how he did it. It was all lies. > Frank Abagnale claimed he spent 5 years as a teenage fugitive. > Impersonating a Pan Am pilot, a Harvard trained doctor and a Louisiana attorney general while forging $2.5 MILLION in bad checks across 26 countries. > Steven Spielberg turned it into a 2002 blockbuster starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks. > It became one of the highest grossing films of that year. > Broadway turned it into a musical. > The FBI hired him as a consultant. > AARP named him their official Fraud Watch Ambassador. > He charged between $20,000 and $30,000 per speaking engagement for decades telling audiences how he pulled it all off. > For 40 years nobody seriously questioned any of it. > Then in 2020 a journalist named Alan Logan spent three years pulling every public record prison document newspaper archive and court file he could find. > Pan Am's own security department told a journalist as early as 1978 "This never happened. You don't forget $2.5 MILLION in bad checks." > Prison records showed Abagnale was behind bars for most of the years he claimed to be a fugitive. > The Georgia hospital had no record of him. > The Louisiana attorney general's office had no record of him. > His only confirmed crime was check fraud totalling less than $1,500. > Logan's conclusion the entire story was not embellished but fabricated. > Abagnale had not committed the con by impersonating pilots and doctors. > He committed it by convincing Hollywood, the FBI and the entire world that he had. The most valuable skill Frank Abagnale ever had was the ability to make people so entertained by a story that they forgot to verify it. That skill made him MILLIONS legally.
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When the GOAT speaks, you listen.
Curious how Jane Street made $40 billion last year with few negative days? Here’s one example: - Between 1990-2000, there was only one exchange-listed product to trade natural gas: the NYMEX (now CME) physically-settled futures contract - In 2000, ICE realized there was demand for a financially settled (swap) futures contract and introduced it - CME countered and listed their own swap future At this point, the products were primarily for institutional and sophisticated individuals with a commodities account. But as commodities boomed in the 2000s, exchanges created new contracts to increase access and appeal to retail traders. - the NYSE introduced an ETF (UNG) that followed natural gas prices in 2007 - More ETFs followed that offered ability to bet on a price decline and to get 2x or 3x leverage - CME introduced a mini contract that was 1/4th the size of the original The next evolution was to appeal to the pure speculator by expanding the market to less regulated exchanges, widening access globally, increasing leverage, and creating daily bets. - ICE introduced mini same day settlement contracts - CME introduced the micro contract that is 1/10th the size of the original - CME and ICE introduced contracts that expire each trading day - Hyperliquid and Binance offer unregulated, on-chain, high leverage, perpetual nat gas contracts for non-US uses - Kalshi offers same day binary contracts. Other prediction markets are moving forward as well. Now add other iterations on settlement days for the contracts and options on everything listed above. Note that all of these contracts settle (perps notwithstanding) against the original CME physical futures contract. But instead of one way to trade the product, there are dozens. This creates an opportunity to make markets across all of these surfaces and arbitrage among them. And that's what Jane Street and other similar HFT shops do (among many, many other things). Nat gas for delivery at Henry Hub, Louisiana is just one product. Take all the ways to trade equities, currencies, commodities, crypto, interest rates, etc across all the different exchanges in all the jurisdictions and the opportunity of making $50 here and $1000 there adds up to an enormous, low-risk money making machine. This opportunity originates from the large variety of ways people desire to trade random financial instruments and the various products designed for them. This creates a hugely profitable opportunity for the HFTs. They provide a valuable service of creating liquidity for those seeking to trade. Whether that trading is smart and profitable for the average punter on the other side is a different story.
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The type of behavior I'm seeing in the secondary/SPV market right now...many people should go to jail.
This is one of the coolest videos I've ever seen. I am SO proud to be an investor in this company. @adcock_brett continues to silence the haters daily, at some point they might run out of things to chirp about!
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In the last 120 days, Figure scaled manufacturing 24x - from 1 robot/day to 1 robot/hour We will manufacture 55 humanoid robots this week
What a time to be alive
it’s 2026 and reality television personality spencer pratt is somehow legitimately the only person who can save the city of los angeles
So amazing. Imagine running a 1:59 debut marathon and coming in second……
What in the world did we just see! The 2 hour marathon barrier has been broken. Three guys went under the old world record... Sebastian Sawe just ran 1:59:30 with crazy negative splits, closing the last half in 59:01....faster than the American Record in the half. One of the most mind blowing performances we've seen. How did we get here? Every breakthrough is a mixture of belief and progress. It takes folks daring to see what's possible, surrounding themselves with a quality team and doing the work to give themselves a shot. You've got to bet on yourself in a big way. When asked whether he believed he could run a sub-2-hour marathon before the race, Sawe answered with one word: "Yes." Let's get the obvious out of the way. Performance enhancing drugs are the legitimate question mark to every breakthrough. So Sawe did as much as he could about taking that off the table. He and his team asked to be tested all the time. His sponsor put up 50K to the Athlete Integrity Unit. The tests are run independently, no advance notice. Over a 2 month stretch, he went through 25 drug tests. There's always a doubt. There has to be given what we know. Hopefully there's transparency in the results. But hats off to Sawe for addressing it: "I want to prove that I am clean when I set foot at the start line." But how'd we actually get here where two guys went sub 2 in the same race? 1. Shoe tech We've had a revolution in shoe technology that boosts running economy. For years shoe companies said their shoe would make you faster and was mostly marketing. Until 2016, when it actually did. Initial research showed a 3-4% saving in economy, while subsequent work has shown it's highly variable. Now, it's a matching game. Find the perfect shoe for your form and you can get a big boost. Normally, it takes years of lots of miles and strength training to boost economy. But now we get that instant boost that not only helps boost performance but often leaves us feeling less beat up in the later stages of the marathon. So we get a little bit less hitting of the wall... 2. The fuel For a long time, fueling was limited by biology. You can only take in and process so much. Then in the 2000s, researchers found if we mixed sugars, we can boost intake because they're processed differently. Then recently, Maurten found if you use a hydrxogel, you boost utilization without GI distress anymore. We've gone from pushing 60g/hr to 120g/hr in a few decades. Again...less bonking. 3. Depth A few decades ago, you spent your career racing on the track and then once your speed started to fade a bit you went to the marathon. Now, many skip right to the marathon. That's where the money is. And with the economy boost from the shoes, you can make that jump quickly. More depth of talent means more competitors in their prime pushing barriers. 4. Belief Even with the shoes and tech, a few years ago sub 2 hours seemed a long way off, until Kipchoge pushed that barrier in a series of time trials. Yes, they weren't official races and had contrived pacing. But it absolutely shifted everyone's thinking on what is possible. A generation of runners saw Kipchoge go for it. Our prediction of what is possible changed. It's mind blowing how far we've come in such a short time. What once seemed decades away, just got smashed twice in the same race. Hats off to Sawe, especially for addressing the scourge of doping and showing folks what is possible with a lot of hard work, some crazy belief, and some fortuitous advances.
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Goodhart’s law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Word got out that this is what the GOATs at Hummingbird want to see with founders, and now the alpha is eroding. Many such cases!
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There's a new trend in VC, where founders are Trauma signaling. Not sure when this started, but so many pitches are "I got hurt when i was 7, and so now I build rockets" Anyone else seeing this?
Fantastic post that aligns with our philosophy re: the future of marketplaces in the AI era. Yoni is a brilliant communicator!
Now with the AI platform shift, context will be the fifth primitive for marketplaces and agent-networks are the emergent NFX paradigm. Even if it’s self-driving and has no conventional interface it functions on the same basic metal.
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On Portfolio Construction There are a lot of opinions on X regarding portfolio construction in VC. I, myself, have been historically been dogmatic in my positioning on concentration. Others praise diversification and the power law of outlier outcomes. The truth is that there is no single best approach to portfolio construction, just the one that works best for you. Investing is a lot like baseball (I’ll pause for the eye roll from those who know me all to well…). There are those that hit home runs and those that hit for average. Both can be extremely valuable, but what’s really dangerous is when you think that you are something that you aren’t. No two hitters are the same, but the best hitters (and investors) find the approach that works for them. @foundersfund is an incredible firm, but out of the 500-600 investments they’ve made, it’s really 10 that matter for them. They are happy to strike out a lot because when they hit, they hit BIG. That requires broad diversification and the ability to size up, concentrating capital behind those companies. They know how to hit the biggest HRs out there and swing unapologetically for the fences. That’s very different than funds like @iaventures, which has had equally impressive returns with an approach to getting big ownership in a concentrated portfolio that demonstrates an amazing batting average with hard contact (their hit rate unicorns and decacorns from seed entry is incredible). This is still wholly different than firms like @fcollective (again, epic returns) who have diversified strategies but have focused on lower dollars cost average and smaller fund sizes, with a swing for he fences approach). They don’t lean in on the momentum of the portfolio, choosing to only swing at the seed stage where they know are positioned best as a team to succeed. While a unicorn might not move the needle for Founders Fund, it certainly moves the needle for them, making the returns from larger outcomes drive even larger fund multiples. I admire each of these firms in their own way and I’m increasingly convinced that the pattern matching / best practices of portfolio construction is more destructive than informative to performance. We’d be better off stress testing our own capabilities and going through the work to determine where that best enables us to invest. And that can evolve over time based on the capabilities of the investor and the conditions of the market I began my career as a “low and slow” hitter - not taking many swings, being very price disciplined, but connecting on a high % of companies. Seed rounds were far more attractively priced than they are today and downstream rounds were overpriced. This resulted in good enough performance for me to play this game as a professional. Today, I still focus a lot on plate discipline, but I’m more relaxed on entry pricing given the confidence I have in leaning in on the right companies and the relative pricing of Series A/B (from a risk/reward basis) to today’s seed rounds. I’m consciously choosing to sacrifice a bit of my batting average (and early ownership) to swing harder for bigger home runs. Others on my team my team have their own approach to the plate and I love that. I don’t want them to pattern match to me or to others, but rather to ensure that they invest according to the capabilities they have and the needs of the market. I want them to learn from others, not try to become something they are not. As my good friend @jakesaper once told me “Be king or queen of your own island, not anyone else’s”. We apply that deeply to our sector focus and it’s equally important to stage and sizing. We need to play OUR game…no one else’s. That’s what will result in the best results for our team members and our LPs. Know what type of hitter you and your teammates are. Build your portfolio construction around that. That’s how you will dominate the plate and drive the returns you need to in this market and those to come.
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Who was the first investor in Cursor? The GOAT investor SBF of course. Alameda Research invested $200k to take half of the company’s $400k pre-seed in 2022. Its stake was sold off in FTX bankruptcy proceedings in 2023 for………$200k.
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