Americans are very worried about their jobs: The perceived probability among US consumers that the unemployment rate will be higher in 1-year increased +0.4 percentage points in April, to 43.9%, the highest in 12 months. Excluding April 2025, this is the highest reading since the 2020 pandemic spike, according to the NY Fed. Since the start of 2025, this percentage has risen +10 points. Meanwhile, 61% of consumers expect unemployment to increase over the next 12 months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. By comparison, only 14% of respondents expected unemployment to rise in 2021. This level of pessimism has never happened outside of a recession. Job market expectations are at recession-like levels.