Still time to sign up for tomorrow morning's @AsiaPolicy webinar on takeaways on Taiwan from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, with @DavidMSacks1, Shao Yuqun and Chung-min Tsai. A lot to talk about!

We didn't get many specifics about what Trump and Xi discussed regarding Taiwan, Iran, and nuclear issues. We got a lot more when President Trump met with reporters on board Air Force One. A long 🧵 on what Trump said and why I was both relieved and confused with some of his remarks. First, below is my transcript of the conversation, and then with my initial thoughts. Broader Taiwan 2:11-3:03 Q: Can I ask you about Taiwan? What did President Xi say to you about Taiwan? And are you still going to approve the arms sale? Trump: President Xi and I talked a lot about Taiwan. He thinks they cannot have anything to do with what they are doing. He’s very much against what they are doing. We talked about Taiwan, we talked about Iran a lot. I think we have a very good understanding on both. On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence because that would be a very strong confrontation. And I heard him out. I didn’t make a comment on it. I heard him out. I have a lot of respect for him. Iran 3:03-3:34: Trump: On Iran, he (Xi) feels very strongly that they can’t have a nuclear weapon. He said that very strongly. They cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he wants them to open up the Strait. But as he said, they closed it and then you closed them (with a smile). That’s true, we control the Strait. And they’ve (China) done no business in the last two and half weeks, which is approximately 500 million dollars a day. So I think we are doing well on all fronts. Risk of Conflict over Taiwan 3:39-4:36 Q: President Xi said that there was a risk of conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan. What is your response to that? Trump: I don’t think there’s a conflict, I think we’ll be fine. He doesn’t want to see a war. And you have two things. You have the Iranian situation. On that I think we agree almost entirely, other than he’s a buyer and we’re not. We don’t need it. And on Taiwan, he doesn’t want to see a movement towards independence. He says look, we’ve had it for thousands of years, and then at a certain period of time it left, and then we get it back, and then the Korean War, a lot of things happened. But, no, on Taiwan, he feels very strongly. I made no commitment either way. Taiwan Arms Sales 4:36-4:59 Q: What about the arms sales to Taiwan Trump: I’ll make a determination over the next fairly short period of time. I have to speak with the person who is right now, you know who he is, that’s running Taiwan. Chinese Pressure on Strait of Hormuz 5:00-6:10 Q: Did President Xi make any firm commitment to put pressure on the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Trump: I’m not asking for any favors. Because when you ask for favors, you have to do favors in return. We don’t need favors. We’ve wiped out their armed forces, essentially. We have a blockade that’s so effective that’s why we did the ceasefire. We really did the ceasefire at the request of other nations. I wouldn’t have really been in favor of it, but we did it as a favor to Pakistan who are terrific people. Q: Is it your instinct that Xi will put pressure (on Iran)? Trump: I didn’t ask him to put pressure because I don’t need favors. I think he will. I think automatically he would like to see if opened up. He gets about 40% of his oil through the Strait. We get none. U.S. in Decline/Thucydides Trap 6:12-7:20 Q: You said on Truth Social that president Xi had made a reference to the decline of the U.S. We didn’t hear him say that. Maybe it was something he said to you in private. What was it first of all that he said that prompted you to tweet that? Trump: He made a statement. It might not have been from him. But from somebody. But he talked about the decline. But he said very publicly that the U.S. was declining, for the last four years, and he said what President Trump has done in the last 15-16 months has been virtually a miracle. He said, we have the hottest country anywhere in the world right now. But he said it was a declining country under Joe Biden. He said we had a seriously declining country. Which we did, with people pouring in from all over the world from prisons and everything else. He said what president Trump has done has been a virtual miracle. China Nuclear Weapons/Arms Control 8:06-9:33 Q: You said in January that you were going to bring up the expansion of their nuclear program. They’ve got 600 weapons now but the Pentagon’s estimate may be going to 1500. Did that come up? Did you succeed in getting them into any form of arms control? Trump: We brought it up. De-nuclearization. We talk about it all the time. With Russia, and with China. It did come up. We did discuss it. Q: What did you conclude? Trump: I got a very positive response. We are going to be together four times. Q: I’m trying to understand what he committed to, if anything. Trump: I don’t want to say anything that he committed to. But we have a very good understanding. You know the concept of de-nuclearization… Q: De-nuclearization or just an extension of START? Trump: No, de-nuclearization. Q: In other words, building down? Trump: And you bring Russia into it also. But the concept of that is something that would be very good. Six Assurances and U.S. Consulting with China over Taiwan Arms Sales 18:54-20:20 Q: On Taiwan, you said you were going to check with the President of Taiwan. But the 1982 assurances that President Reagan gave said the United States would not consult with China on arms sales to Taiwan. It sounds to me like you have consulted with China. Trump: Well, 1982 is a long way away. That’s a big far distance away. Q: So you dispensed with (that agreement)? , Trump: No I didn’t say anything about it. Certainly he brought that up. He talked about, obviously. So what am I going to do, say I don’t want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement that was signed in 1982? No, we discussed arms sales to Taiwan. We discussed the whole thing with arms sales in great detail actually. And I’ll be making decisions. But you know I think the last thing we need right now is a war. That’s 9,500 miles away. That’s the last thing we need. We’re doing very well. Q: Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if it came to it? Trump: I don’t want to say. I’m not going to say that. There’s only one person who knows that. You know it is? Me. I’m the only person. That question was asked today by President Xi. I said, I don’t talk about those things. He asked me if I would defend them (Taiwan), and I said I don’t talk about that.

What can we learn through handshakes? Quite a lot, actually. I told the @nytimes: “It was noteworthy that Xi appeared not to let Trump do the ‘power pull’ move, whereby Trump pulls the foreign leader’s hand closer to Trump,” said Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He added that “Trump gave Xi a few warm ‘taps’ of Xi’s hand with his left hand, a signal that Trump showed extra friendliness.” “Trump’s more casual, showmanship style was on full display, whereas Xi’s body language and remarks were a bit more scripted and reserved, which is Xi’s style,” Mr. Morris said.

Almost one week away from @AsiaPolicy's live webinar, "Taiwan Affairs After the Summit: Where Do Cross-Strait Relations Go From Here," featuring @DavidMSacks1 Chung-min Tsai, and Yuqun Shao. Tuesday, May 19 from 9-10am US EST. Sign up below!

Pleased to moderate an excellent webinar on "Taiwan Affairs After the Summit: Where Do Cross-Strait Relations Go from Here," featuring @DavidMSacks1, Chung-min Tsai (Professor of Political Science at National Chengchi University), and Yuqun Shao (Director of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies). May 19 from 9-10am US EST. There will be a lot to discuss on the heels of the Trump-Xi summit, and implications for Taiwan and cross-Straits relations. Please sign up and ask us some questions!