Lyle Morris
@LyleJMorris
Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and National Security at @AsiaPolicy’s Center for China Analysis. Previous @DeptofWar; @RANDCorporation; @NBRNews; @CSIS.
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Pleased to contribute to this join collaboration between @ChinaFile and @AsiaPolicy on What to Watch at the Xi-Trump Summit.
I offered my take on the question of whether Washington’s long-standing policy toward Taiwan will inevitably test Beijing’s “red line” on Taiwan. I find that it will, because U.S. policy, including arms sales and congressional visits to Taiwan, is rooted in the Taiwan Relations Act and reflects enduring, bi-partisan practices that will continue regardless of who occupies the White House.
Alongside colleagues @wstv_lizzi, @neilthomas123, Craig Allen, @pstAsiatech, @hlntnr, and Jing Qian. Thanks to Jennifer Choo, @susanjakes, and @SegalWilliams
for facilitating the discussion!
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*Webinar reminder*
Please join me this Monday, Sept 21 from 9-10am ET for a @AsiaPolicy discussion on how China is responding to Russia–North Korea military cooperation, featuring @sungminchohi and Emma Chanlett-Avery.
Based on @sungminchohi's recent CCA paper "Russia–North Korea Military Cooperation in Response to China’s Tactical Ambiguity ."
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More CCG ramming of PH vessels in the SCS. When will there be repercussions for this kind of behavior?
To call this unprofessional or bullying would be an understatement. What we are seeing here is PURE EVIL! 🇨🇳
Important @CASI_Research report by Drew Holliday unpacking PLA operational and mathematical approaches to managing war. Understudied topic that needs to be mined further.
Hi @SCS_PI. If you claim to promote “transparency” in the SCS, how about you post movements of the PLAN and PLAAF? Instead of exclusively posting on US activities? Perhaps it’s because you have an agenda?
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Based on the flight path of carrier-borne CMV-22 #AE6BA6# on Sep. 12, USS Abraham Lincoln CSG will leave the #SouthChinaSea# soon.
“The U.S. officials declined to identify the Chinese entities that supplied the imagery to Iran and didn’t allege direct involvement by Beijing.”
Iran likely procured commercial satellite imagery from Chinese SOEs. Still, given the close links with the Chinese gov’t, highly likely Beijing knew about it.
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NEW TONIGHT: Before Iran carried out its attack that killed three U.S. troops in July, Tehran acquired high-resolution satellite images of the base in Jordan from Chinese entities, according to U.S. officials familiar with details of the incident.
It is the clearest evidence so far that Chinese support for Iran during the war has had lethal consequences for U.S. forces, according to the officials, who say the U.S. has connected the imagery to the attack.
@VeraMBergen @shelbyholliday @anikaaseth
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Oh BTW it's all within range of hundreds and hundreds of ballistic/hypersonic missiles, bombers, LACM-armed submarines, etc.
We NEED the allied real estate of the FIC to have any hope of dispersing enough to survive. Otherwise might as well just retreat east of the IDL. 🤷♂️
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Maps underscore the question. There is little geography for the US to “retreat” to in the 2nd island chain.
Bombshell report from @jekavanagh that has the Japanese strategic community buzzing.
The proposal:
— Explicitly say the U.S. will not defend Taiwan
— End defense treaties with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia
— Drastically reduce U.S. forces in Asia
My take: Retreating to the second island chain does not preserve the balance of power more cheaply. It changes the balance of power.
A Second Island Chain Strategy for Asia — Defense Priorities
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Today was my first day as Senior Fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment. It's a wonderful opportunity and I look forward to working with Jon Bateman, Arthur Nelson and the team of leading thinkers on AI and other critical tech issues
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How I feel every time I go to Asia.
It's safe to say Kyle Shanahan still is getting used to Australia and being in the "future" 😂
Alternate take: this “decay” is from real world battlefield experience. Experience that the PLAN does have and is trying to simulate through “realistic training” but can nonetheless not replicate.
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The🇺🇸US Navy is DECAYING
11 Nuclear Carriers except the Ford, all 30 years old. 🇮🇷Iran War? Cant even gather 3 Carriers together and fight
🇺🇸Thinking you can sink🇨🇳our Carriers? Ford would be just a appetiser for the YJ20🤭
Propaganda? Do some research.
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I see people are discussing my recent report, Superpowers and AGI, here after @vince_chow1 published a piece about it in @SCMPNews. The report is long and multifaceted, so I thought I'd share some of its nuances.
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The Chinese general responsible for areas including Taiwan met for the first time with Admiral Samuel Paparo, the top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific
How is China responding to closer Russia–North Korea military cooperation?
Join us on Sept. 21 from 9-10am for a live webinar with @sungminchohi and Emma Chanlett-Avery examining China’s policy of tactical ambiguity, Xi Jinping’s recent engagement with Pyongyang, and the implications for regional stability and U.S. policy. I will moderate the discussion.
Register below:
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Live-fire drills will be conducted in parts of the #Taiwan# Strait, according to Zhangzhou Maritime Safety Administration.
Anyone in the know, please confirm/add to the points below:
July 23 Zone (5-point polygon) — approximately centered at 23.65°N, 117.55°E
July 24 Zone (4-point rectangle) — approximately centered at 23.58°N, 117.47°E
Both zones are located in the Taiwan Strait/East #China# Sea region, north of Taiwan. The July 24 zone is positioned slightly southwest of the July 23 zone.
These are PLA-announced restricted areas for #military# exercises during the specified 12-hour windows (06:00-18:00 local time).
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China begins two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait
Reminder China’s claim of a reef as territory is invalid under UNCLOS, and the Philippines has every right to position its ships within its own EEZ.
This is due to China’s rapid nuclear buildup, and more recently, the PLAN’s SLBM test.
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has urged Japan to more openly debate nuclear weapons' role in the country's defense, a rare instance of a sitting Cabinet member broaching the highly contentious issue.
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I first met Xi Jinping in 1986, when he was vice mayor of Xiamen. Great to speak with @ezraklein about China, its leadership, and the years that shaped its direction. My full interview with the @nytimes is out now.
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Interesting. News of this has been scrubbed from the PRC MND website and PLA Daily. It's like it didn't happen. Are they purged already?
Important changes to the CMC:
1) Zhang Shuguang (张曙光), promoted to General, and takes over as head of CMC Discipline Inspection Commission and director of the CMC’s supervision committee, replacing Zhang Shengmin.
2) Wang Gang (王刚) promoted to General, and new Commander of the PLA Air Force.
That means Zhang Shengmin will retire soon and Zhang Shuguang will likely become new Vice Chair of CMC. Wang will likely be part of new CMC lineup in 2027.
Other recent developments, Defence Minister Dong Jun and General Han Shengyan, commander of the Central Theatre Command, were pictured on Monday seated next to each other at a gala marking the 105th anniversary of the Communist Party’s founding. It was the first time they had been pictured alongside other senior PLA commanders.
This could be an indication that both Dong and Han may be on track to become CMC members as well.
If I were to guess, new CMC leadership could include Zhang, Wang, Dong, Han, and Yang Zhibin, who was appointed commander of the Eastern Theatre Command in December.
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