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The Analyst
@MMatters22596
We find asymmetric growth setups before the breakout Elliott Wave | Cycles | Fundamentals Business & IR: vizongbr@gmail.com NFA | DYOR Premium access on Patreon
Joined September 2024
127 Following    78.5K Followers
Most of the smaller data-center companies won't survive over the long-term. - $RIOT - $BTDR - $MARA - $BRUN - $KEEL All of these will probably become irrelevant. Right now the market is still heavily supply constrained, so the tide lifts all boats. Here's an overview, which companies are actually positioned well, and which are not. 1. $CRWV - Currently biggest Neo Cloud with huge backlog - Lots of Know How for GPU Clusters 2. $NBIS - Full-Stack-AI-Cloud - Long-term contracts with $META and $MSFT 3. $IREN - Best miner Pivot, $MSFT and $NVDA contracts - Huge Renewables pipeline 4. $HUT - Huge long-term contracts with strong counterparties - Can survive as AI-Landlord 5. $APLD - Multiple big hyperscaler leases - less capital intensive than Neoclouds - Can survive as Power and Shell supplier 6. $WULF - Strong power access - Stays relevant as Power-Landlord, not as software player. 7. $CIFR - Strong HPC backlog - Low Time-To-Power Probably won't stay relevant: 8. $RIOT - Bad financing structure - Execution risk is high due to insufficient know how - Without cloud or custim silicon, Riot is a replaceable power and shell landlord 9. $BTDR - Cloud too small to keep up on depreciation and GPU-Generation swaps - Hybrid at mining and AI. No real focus on one model. - Lower customer quality than competition 10. $MARA - AI remains a secondary option behind mining - No high-density delivery or software layer - Only few running Take-or-Pay-AI-Leases 11. $KEEL - No real top tier contracts - Scale,power security and quality are lacking behind competitors - Currently still reliant on Mining 12. $BRUN - Very small Neocloud without power moat. - GPU-Capex needs to be contantly renewed - financing is a problem without a hyperscaler balance sheet. - High customer concentration and weak software layer. When supply overshoots demand, these will be the first to have problems selling their capacity. Any long-term investor needs to be aware of this. The buildout won't last forever. That's how capitalism works.
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