OddStats
@OddStats
Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE.
133 Following 97.2K Followers
Today, SPX
▪ Set the lowest point of the last 10 days
▪ But closed +0.97% off the daily low
▪ While VIX closed under 17
And how did SPX do the "next day" after the 10 most recent events just like this one?
+0.1%
-0.2%
-2.4%
-1.7%
+1.3%
-1.5%
-0.1%
-1.7%
-1.6%
-2.1%
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CL oil futures hit $97 for the first time in more than 3 weeks.
The last time SPX closed more than 2% from all time highs was September 17.
It's like there are two stock markets stuck in completely alternate realities.
DRAM, the memory chip ETF, is now down -27% in less than a month.
SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, is now down -17% in less than two weeks.
Coreweave is now down 68% from all time highs.
If you bought it two days ago, you are already in a bear market. Enjoy.
QQQ has now drawn down -6% in 7 trading days and VXN (VIX for QQQ) just hit its highest point in over 2 months.
Current distance from all time highest point:
S&P 500 -0.4%
NASDAQ 100 -1.5%
Dow Jones -5.6%
Bank Index -12.7%
Semiconductors -14.7%
TLT (20y T-bond ETF) -45.0%
2026 is somehow only the 6th year in history that the S&P 500 set a new all time high close in October but not in September.
The two previous times this century?
▪ 2019
▪ 2007
There are now 25 calendar days/17 trading days until the 2026 US Midterm Election.
But the only fucking thing you care about is how much SPX drew down (at worst) from this point until Election Day itself.
Let me guess; other than 2014/2018, not what you were hoping to see?
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Diesel prices plummet on this news.
All the way back to where they were 2 nights ago at 6pm.
Party at my place.
Trump: Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Oil Market - Truth Social
Sorry, bears, Bluekurtic still hates you.
Personally.
The S&P 500 hasn't been this boring in over a decade. $VIX has stayed between 14 and 20 for 51 straight days, the longest streak since 2012.
May be boring isn't so bad. In 7 of 8 prior streaks, $SPX had only single digit peak to trough drawdowns over next one year.
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I know a lot of you are pinning your hopes on 2026 closing out like 2018 did (Trump's other midterm year).
VIX, 25 days before the election:
2026 - 14.90, hasn't been near 20 in months
2018 - 21.31, was just in the mid 20s days ago
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Hey, @X, you gonna do anything about this or nah?
The only two times in history where
▪ The US 10Y closed at a 250d high while
▪ EUR dropped $0.05 vs USD within 29 days
❶ June 1999
❷ This week
VIX has not breached 20.00+ in 51 trading days.
That is now the longest streak in over 2 years.
Have you people ever been right? Ever? About anything?
Why am I doing this to you?
▪ 2 hours until the market opens
▪ I am on drugs
▪ Super important you know exactly how old I am
JUST ME, RIGHT?
1) Are you also kinda thinking, "sure feels like something really fucking bad is gonna happen soon, doesn't it?"
2) Does *that* not have you kinda thinking, "every time I think that, I'm wrong. I bet the market is up 10% in a fucking month."
3) Does THAT not kinda have you thinking, "well, last time I did the inverse trade, I *still* fucking lost."
4) And does THAT not kinda have you thinking, "yeah, fuck it, I guess I'll just sit this one out entirely; which guarantees it'll happen?"
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▪ This is the first fucking time
▪ Fucking ever
▪ The 10y Treasury has gone from under 4% to over 5.2%
▪ Within 150 trading days
▪ Ever
Here.
Why don't you actually learn something today.
SPX has now gone 20 days without a +1% or -1% day.
But how has the index done 1 week and 2 weeks forward during the 0DTE era after this sort of event?
