Otavio (Tavi) Costa(@TaviCosta ):It’s wild to see markets still pricing in zero Fed rate cuts with this economic index at its worst level in nearly 70 years. I believe we’ll see meaningful cuts over the next two years. Counterintuitively, the war only strengthens the case for lower rates. Military spending is accelerating, the cost of debt has already surged, and recession risks are materially higher than they were just six months ago. And if your argument is that tighter conditions are needed to fight inflation, I have news for you… This is not the 1970s. The Fed has zero ability to do anything meaningful to contain inflation. Growth is slowing, but debt isn’t.

2026.04.27 01:30

It’s wild to see markets still pricing in zero Fed rate cuts with this economic index at its worst level in nearly 70 years. I believe we’ll see meaningful cuts over the next two years. Counterintuitively, the war only strengthens the case for lower rates. Military spending is accelerating, the cost of debt has already surged, and recession risks are materially higher than they were just six months ago. And if your argument is that tighter conditions are needed to fight inflation, I have news for you… This is not the 1970s. The Fed has zero ability to do anything meaningful to contain inflation. Growth is slowing, but debt isn’t.