Ziad Daoud
@ZiadMDaoud
Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard @MiddleEast_HKS. PhD @LSEEcon. Views are mine. الأحد بالعربي
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At inauguration, Trump wanted:
cheaper oil
lower interest rates
Gulf cash
In early 2026, all 3 appeared on track:
oil was falling
markets were expecting rate cuts
Gulf had pledged trillions
Then he started the Iran war & everything went into reverse
Analysis on @TheTerminal
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Before the Iran war, many forecasters predicted oil prices in the $50's
Today, crude is near $99 -- and $120 is plausible
Getting there would require 3 conditions:
1. Military escalation
2. Hormuz closure
3. Disruption to alternative export routes
Let’s take them in turn
1/5
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