People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently.
Why? CPO is my #
1# thematic long.
Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics...
I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X....
With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show.
CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity.
In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research.
While overall optical market reaches $154B.
Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all:
-> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates.
-> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries.
-> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals.
Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO.
As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector.
My contrarian thought process on current players:
Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage.
A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver).
Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too...
I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.