Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS:
First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through:
> $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings
> $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings
> $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings.
Now, time to look at Nebius:
-> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power.
-> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride
-> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter.
Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge?
-> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good.
Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU