Jim Bianco(@biancoresearch):Real Yields operate with cycles or regimes. During the "money printing" era from 2009 to 2022 (red), the 10-year real yield averaged just 0.23%. We are not in a zero-yield, money-printing era anymore (thank god). Before this (left blue), the 10-year real yield averaged 2.74%. I have argued the current period (right blue) should look like the pre-money-printing era (left blue), and it does. It also means 10-year real yields can go much higher before they become too restrictive (probably above 3%). What would cause 10-year real yields to go higher? Sticky inflation (we have now) and a Fed that does not "choose" (as Warsh terms it) to act on it. @Marcomadness2

2026.07.23 18:21

Real Yields operate with cycles or regimes. During the "money printing" era from 2009 to 2022 (red), the 10-year real yield averaged just 0.23%. We are not in a zero-yield, money-printing era anymore (thank god). Before this (left blue), the 10-year real yield averaged 2.74%. I have argued the current period (right blue) should look like the pre-money-printing era (left blue), and it does. It also means 10-year real yields can go much higher before they become too restrictive (probably above 3%). What would cause 10-year real yields to go higher? Sticky inflation (we have now) and a Fed that does not "choose" (as Warsh terms it) to act on it. @Marcomadness2