Prediction markets like @Polymarket and @Kalshi are hot, but they have a dirty secret: the smartest money isn’t playing. By letting people bet on any event -- who wins an election, when the next Fed rate cut lands, how a company’s quarter comes in -- prediction markets promise to give us humanity’s best estimate of how likely something is to happen. The mechanism that’s supposed to deliver that is research getting rewarded. If you spend weeks digging into a race and conclude the market’s 60% should really be 85%, you bet -- and you make money for being right. You get paid for your work, and the public gets your information baked into the price. The promise gets fulfilled. Except it mostly never plays out like this. Your bet is public and tied to your identity. The moment you act on your research, you reveal it. Copiers pile in behind you, and the price moves to your target before you’ve even finished buying. You did the work, but everyone else reprices for free off your wallet. The math isn’t mathing. So the people who actually know things stop showing up, and what’s left is sentiment dressed up as a forecast. Just gamblers at the casino, so to speak. And it only gets worse as these markets grow: more volume means more wallet-watching & more copying. Success punishes the people doing real work and rewards the freeloaders. Prediction markets fail to keep their promise. The public deserves high-quality, real-time estimates on elections, geopolitical conflicts, corporate financials, and the rest. Right now we’re not getting them -- we’re getting the crowd, minus the people who actually know anything. The solution is privacy. Private trades, private portfolios, private identities. No more wallet-watching or copytrading. If you can profit from your research without people knowing it's you, then research will actually get done and PM pricing will actually reflect information rather than sentiment. The promise would finally be fulfilled. This is what we're working on at @FoglightPrivacy. Foglight brings privacy to all onchain applications, including prediction markets. And yes, it will work for @Polymarket. Join the waitlist at and follow @FoglightPrivacy to stay updated.