Two things... If we go back over the past year, expectations of the policy path are certainly increasing the yield on the 10-year. However, regardless of model the change in the expected policy path only accounts for about half to change in the 10-year over that period. The policy path accounts for even less over the past 3 months and almost none of the change from late June to Jackson Hole when yields rose notably. It's because yields increased without a change in the forward path that so many commentators have looked for alternative explanations. Personally, I think the most likely explanation is just uncertainty about the future path was/is very high the past few month and those holding long duration demand more return because of this. Note this is not inconsistent with the findings that most of the movements in yield occur when information about the path arrives (data and speeches) nor is it inconsistent with arguments that large deficits or other supply worries matter. All of these explanations would be expected to generate most of the moves in yield around the arrival of news. second point is we can't even reject the worries about the deficit or inflation debt spirals with this data or the fact that the deficit has been known for a long time. It's an empirical fact that yield spikes due to sovereign debt runs resemble a Hemingway character going bankruptcy. Slowly for a long while and then all at once. The blog in the tweet embedded below has a review of these drivers and links to the literature on debt runs where everyone knows the debt is large and unsustainable, yet nothing happens to yield until some seemingly small tipping point. To be clear, I don't think a debt run is a worry. I think we just have a good old fashioned uncertain tightening cycle with a lot of duration risk driving investor risk aversion upwards.