【2026.5.15】 In the chart, the blue line represents the ratio of the CBOE S&P 500 Risk Reversal Index (RXM SM Index) to the S&P 500 Index, the brown line represents the Cape Ratio, and the gray line represents the VIX. The RXM SM index is an SPX long strategy packaged with options. Dividing the RXM SM index by the SP500 can serve as an indicator of options market sentiment. The ratio represents the net balance between how much the market is willing to pay for upside participation and how much it is willing to collect for downside protection. A high ratio indicates investors are more willing to sell puts to cash out, reflecting optimism and suggesting an undervalued market. Conversely, a low ratio indicates investors are unwilling to sell puts, reflecting pessimism or risk aversion, often indicating an overvalued market. If liquidity tightens or any other disturbance occurs at this time, market volatility will quickly rise. Now, following the end of 2021, Q1 has reached this level again. After a dip, the data only slightly recovered, and with the recent rise, it is approaching the historical level of the end of 2021 again. Simply put, the market is pricing in that anyone selling put options may face greater risk. If volatility is still low, this is not good news. From options data, you should "remain vigilant while sailing."