We should review the 2021 "chicken dinner shrinking" market trend. Initially, everyone thought there would be a rapid recovery after the pandemic, anticipating a surge in overall market performance. However, as economic data was released in the second quarter, investors began to realize that there might not be a sustained overall market rally. This gradually evolved into a market focused on structural changes rather than overall market performance, leading to the "chicken dinner shrinking" trend. New energy (lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc.) became the absolute main driver of capital inflows, with the "Ningbo Index" significantly outperforming the market and some leading stocks experiencing explosive growth. Meanwhile, traditional consumer blue chips (the Kweichow Moutai Index) and most small-cap/non-core sectors continued to suffer losses. The index remained relatively stable, but individual stocks generally declined, with trading highly concentrated in a few "group-buying" stocks. Trading became extremely congested, preventing the "group-buying" trend from spreading. When external conditions worsened, risk appetite decreased, and funds became even more concentrated in these stocks, accelerating the cycle of "the worse the market, the more funds are held, and the more funds are held, the worse the market becomes." Then, in early 2022, the collapse of these "group-buying" stocks was triggered by tightening external liquidity, a valuation correction in US stocks, underperformance of the "group-buying" stocks, falsified fundamentals, negative feedback from mutual fund redemptions, and further losses in small-cap stocks, creating a spiral cycle.
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