I built a lot of my worldview in 2023-2024 on a statistically invalid belief When got 3.5 came out I loaded all my trading journals into it and generated target portfolios. Net of slippage these portfolios outperformed what I did in real life I was “one shotted”. AI would make trading obsolete. So I was very early on the existential crisis But then years later. All my dumbest strategies. Zero alpha decay. LLMs know about them. At one point I did a pilot with a bit client re “synthetic portfolio managers” to productize what I found in my trading journals. What I learned were that LLMs were almost definitional consensus machines, especially when fed with info other people have such as market news That’s why you see a million people posting their AI hedge funds and nobody posting their ai hedge fund PNL. The trade journals were the edge. The LLM was machinistic application of the edge. But remove the edge and the machine fed the exhaust everyone else gets is worse than random. It is a machine that mid curves into crowded trades LLMs probably help Leopold trade bc his wife is the chief of staff of Anthropic The new edge is doing whatever the fuck it takes to get the best data and apply the best models to it without giving up your IP Financial RSI will arrive from a group of people who see this clearly and collaborate to make this happen which is what I spend most of my time on