I always dreamed of AGI as a wise advisor for humanity. Although LLMs are great for coding & knowledge work, I wouldn’t trust them to give me advice on my career, business strategy, or policy preferences. How can we build AI systems optimized for wisdom? At Mantic we believe the unlock is prediction: predicting world events as accurately as possible, and hill-climbing this single metric. Today we share some recent progress on the Thinking Machines website, having found Tinker a great platform for our RL experiments. TL;DR: We RL-tune gpt-oss-120b to become a better forecaster than any other model. Having good scaffolding is a prerequisite. A fun result: our tuned model + Grok are decorrelated from the other best models, and so are the most indispensable when picking a team.