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Michael Sikand
@michaelsikand
Investor & Entrepreneur || $50M+ AUM @joinautopilot || Not Financial Advice || Prev Exit To @MorningBrew || Forbes 30u30
Joined February 2015
741 Following    125.3K Followers
Let's talk about photonics. My photonics portfolio is up roughly 100% in 6 months but down around 10% in the last month, and will be down more after today's price action is baked in. The first thing I'll say is that the last 3 months in the stock market and the rise of FinX creators + the mass proliferation of copy trading and bottleneck trades have created unrealistic expectations after truly biblical returns. The truth is that many of the investors following my photonics fund on @joinautopilot entered after it had already produced near or above triple digit returns. SEC Rule 156 exists for a reason: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The truth is that the natural human intuition is to believe that past performance DOES, which makes that disclosure very important. In terms of photonics, when a sector explodes this fast, it's inevitable that the trade will contract/consolidate especially in the absence of major earnings reports that can compress multiples and in light of bearish macro news that drags anything high beta with it. AI is getting hit across the board today, but photonics being some of the highest beta infra stocks are particularly bloody. $LITE -9% (down 33% from ATH) $COHR -9% (down 24% from ATH) $AAOI -16% (down 50% from ATH) $CIEN -8% (down 31% from ATH) However, nothing has changed about the thesis. I went through every earnings call across the entire optical supply chain last quarter. Every layer told the same story. $LITE is rationing customers. Every laser it makes is SOLD through 2027. $COHR is booked into 2028. $AAOI is scaling capacity nearly 10x and STILL says it won't be enough. Goldman Sachs projects the optical networking and silicon photonics total addressable market (TAM) to 9x from roughly $15 billion to $154 billion. That's the thesis around photonics in a nutshell and why I have conviction in it. Remember to never over index on one specific sector. I own photonics in addition to non AI like gaming, defense, water tech, and space plus other AI infra sectors like neoclouds and memory, some of which are up big even today, like defense. Disclaimer: Since this is investing, Investment advice provided by Autopilot advisers LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks including the risk of the loss of principal. Gross performance shown, includes fees from Autopilot.
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