📺 What You Need To Know Ahead Of This Week: Is A Contrarian Rebound Setting Up?
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@toddmichael70 provides an update ahead of the new week, noting that the market remains in a short-term pullback, but there are signs conditions may be improving.
Leaders performed well last week, while the S&P 500 $SPX / $SPY and Nasdaq $QQQ reclaimed both their 21-day and 50-day moving averages.
That opens the door to a potential medium-term upgrade in our Trend Gauge if the rebound can hold. All major indexes also remain above their 200-day moving averages.
But beneath the surface, breadth remains the biggest concern.
Mid-caps $MDY fell 1.7% last week and small-caps $IWM dropped 1.5%, with both remaining technically weak.
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On both the NYSE and Nasdaq, 52-week lows have exceeded 52-week highs for two consecutive weeks, and even Friday produced net new lows across the major exchanges.
Participation has deteriorated sharply.
Only about 28% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving averages, approaching the 20% level reached during the March washout.
Roughly 52% of stocks remain above their 200-day moving averages versus about 45% near the previous broad-market low.
In other words, the indexes are recovering faster than the average stock.
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At the same time, contrarian indicators are becoming increasingly interesting.
Individual investor bullishness just suffered its biggest decline in more than a year, while bearish sentiment climbed above 53%.
The CBOE put/call ratio also spiked to roughly 0.90 on Fed Day — around the same level seen near the spring market low.
Those readings don't confirm a bottom, but they suggest fear and defensive positioning are becoming increasingly stretched.
Combined with deteriorated breadth, that could be creating the conditions for a contrarian rebound if price action confirms.
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Macro headwinds haven't disappeared.
The Fed raised rates 25 bps last week, with markets pricing more than a 90% chance of another hike this year.
Oil and Treasury yields remain elevated.
The 10-year yield briefly pushed above 5% before finishing at 4.998%, while the 30-year ended around 5.331%.
Whether the 10-year can remain below 5% could be important for equities this week.
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For $SPX / $SPY, 7,620 is the key near-term level to defend, and we don't want to see Thursday or Friday's lows broken.
For $QQQ, watch 734.58, the previous August high. Progress above that level would strengthen the case that this rebound is developing into something more meaningful.
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So, the sentiment and positioning are becoming increasingly supportive from a contrarian perspective, while the major indexes are repairing technical damage.
But breadth remains weak and macro headwinds are still significant.
The ingredients for a rebound may be forming. Now price and participation need to confirm it.
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Watch this Short video where
@toddmichael70 breaks it all down in detail 🔽