The AI trade has now reached the same concentration zone that marked earlier market peaks.
- In the 1970s, the Nifty Fifty reached about 40% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
- In the 1980s, Japan reached about 44% of the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index.
- Around 2000, tech and telecom reached about 41% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
- Now, the 10 biggest AI-linked stocks are around 41% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
Does not automatically mean AI is a bubble or that the market has to crash. But it does mean the market has become very dependent on a small group of companies, with concentrated bet on 1 theme.
So the question is now, can a small group of AI winners keep delivering enough growth to justify carrying the entire market?