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Sean
@sean_________
TMT catalyst/event-driven trader with a focus on research.
Joined May 2019
3K Following    8.6K Followers
UBS Desk: "I can’t remember a time when I have received so many inquiries from one our research reports than this $MU report did not to mention the level of controversy it created (Tim actually received a few rogue threatening emails not cool…)"
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UBS on $MU: Our supply chain work on Long Term Agreements (LTAs) across the memory industry suggests that up to 30% of DDR volumes industry-wide will be soon locked in at pricing that is just slightly below current levels we now expect the DRAM industry to remain undersupplied until at least C2Q28 (vs. 4Q27 prior), and NAND undersupply to last until 4Q27 (was 3Q27). At this point, we believe hyperscalers alone to have currently secured ~60-70% of the industry Server DDR5 volumes under 'enhanced' LTAs - in other words, guaranteeing MU and others offtake for this volum Even more important, this scenario yields MU EPS of >$100 even out in C2029E when we do believe DRAM pricing will undergo a fairly significant correction. In other words, we think MU still earns >$100 even if pricing for the floating portion of DDR declines by ~50%.
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