Author of The Ascent Begins. Independent Analyst. Money, geopolitics, AI, science, and sovereignty. Mapping the collapse and the reconstruction of order.
BREAKING: The market just added more than 100 billion dollars to Meta's $META value in a single morning on one word … “EXCESS”.
The company is reportedly building a business to sell its spare AI computing power to outside customers, a rival to Amazon and Microsoft's cloud. Investors cheered proof that Meta's staggering spending finally has a payback plan.
There is one problem with the word excess. Months ago, Meta was so short of compute it told its own engineers to use less.
Earlier this year, Google restricted Meta's access to its AI models, unable to meet Meta's demand, which delayed Meta's own projects and pushed it to ration usage internally.
Meta then signed tens of billions of dollars in take-or-pay deals to lock in more. Zuckerberg has said plainly that the industry is starved of computing power and that Meta should grab as much as it can.
This is not a company drowning in surplus. No way!!.. It is a company that could not get enough.
So the cheer may have it backwards. Selling compute is not Meta confessing it overbuilt.
It is Meta doing what Amazon did when it turned its own plumbing into a business worth more than the store. You sell access to the machine while you keep buying more of it, because the selling is how you finance the buying.
That flips the whole meaning. Think again! The same news that reads like the spending is finally slowing is a signal it is about to climb.
Compute has become the new oil, and the tell is that the companies burning it fastest are opening the pumps. Not because they have too much. Because they have understood that the scarcest thing in the world is worth selling, even to rivals, even as they scramble to secure more of it than anyone else.