Moving $IREN from my long term portfolio to my short term portfolio. The competitive advantage hasnt changed. I still believe the business multiplies its value several times over the long run BUT the shareholder will not capture that growth to the same degree, and that is the whole point. > The dilution stack: - $5bn in convertible notes - $NVDA right for 30M shares at $70 - The co-CEO grant: 18.2M RSUs - More equity and debt still coming to build the other 4.5 GW ($6bn ATM) > Facts: 5 GW secured, a $9.7bn $MSFT contract, a $3.4bn $NVDA contract, investment grade financing. > Assumptions: In a base case scenario, the share count climbs toward 650M. The market cap can multiply by roughly 20x as the 5 GW converts to revenue. But the price per share captures a 55% of that, closer to 12x, because dilution eats nearly half the growth. > What bothers me about the co CEOs grant: The RSUs will be vesting on continued employment rather than on execution, so what bothers me is not the dilution itself but the incentives (non execution milestones) > Im giving them until December 2026 to show real execution and new contracts. > What they need to achieve: 480 MW operational, $3.7bn ARR target. If they convert capacity into revenue at the margins they promise and the dilution slows, $IREN earns its way back into my long term book.