Sonu Varghese(@sonusvarghese):Hawkish Fed, really?! Jun '25 SEP (before 75bps of cuts) vs Jun '26, for 2026 👇 Real GDP growth: 1.6 -> 2.3 Core PCE: 2.4 -> 3.4 UE Rate: 4.5 -> 4.1 Median FFR: 3.6 -> 4.1 Nominal GDP growth: 4.0 -> 6.0 Real FFR: 1.2 -> 0.4 Long-run rate: 3.0 -> 3.2 Actual FFR: 4.4 -> 3.9

Sonu Varghese

@sonusvarghese

Musings only. Chief Macro Strategist @CarsonGroupLLC. Advisory services through CWM, LLC, Registered Investment Advisor. Manage $7B+ for clients.

Joined February 2011

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Sonu Varghese@sonusvarghese

2026.09.17 21:47

Hawkish Fed, really?! Jun '25 SEP (before 75bps of cuts) vs Jun '26, for 2026 👇 Real GDP growth: 1.6 -> 2.3 Core PCE: 2.4 -> 3.4 UE Rate: 4.5 -> 4.1 Median FFR: 3.6 -> 4.1 Nominal GDP growth: 4.0 -> 6.0 Real FFR: 1.2 -> 0.4 Long-run rate: 3.0 -> 3.2 Actual FFR: 4.4 -> 3.9