Let me remind you that this stock is still trading at 220$ $NBIS If we look at that estimate given by Marc Boroditsky at the Paris Raise Summit – meaning revenue will rise to tens of billions of dollars over the next 13 months (by August 2027), with the text mentioning "10s of B$ of revenue" and at least $20 billion ARR (Annual Run Rate) by the end of 2027 – we can map this directly onto your Excel model. Let's look at the 2027E column in the Excel sheet and find where the revenue matches Boroditsky's promises: What does the Excel model say about the share price with these numbers? 1. Base Case: In the Excel sheet, the Base scenario forecasts a revenue of $16.75 billion for 2027E. With this revenue, the projected share price (Price – Base) is $625.78. 2. Bull Case: If Boroditsky's promise of "tens of billions" means clearly exceeding the $20 billion mark during 2027 (as estimated in the Reddit post: "At least $20B ARR"), we move straight into the Bull model. The Excel Bull Case forecasts a revenue of up to $40.47 billion (ARR $64.00B) for 2027E. In this scenario, the projected share price (Price – Bull) skyrockets to an astronomical $1,092.85

I agree. $SIVE and $AAOI have had multiple -20% red days, and the bears have come out everywhere to celebrate, just like the bulls did when the stock was trading at 100s. Honestly, I think this sector is being too heavily oversold, a lot of retail investors have been shaken off and have started to doubt their conviction. I'm pretty sure that when Sivers raised 700M SEK which was oversubscribed by multiple international institutions that those institutions weren't buying just to lose their money. I wonder what $SIVE management pitched to them, and what their plans are to make the company SO successful that it gave these institutions huge conviction to pile money into the shares.

It is indeed rough seeing $AAOI $SIVE getting roughly sold but i’m very confident we are bottoming out here and due for a bounce. I believe they’re gonna start recovering upwards when overall sentiment changes.

Bootstrap is a venture debt fund. Their job is to lend money, get equity, and exit. They don’t hold. Since big institutional lenders often hedge or divest ahead of time, the worst of the overhang selling pressure should be already be behind us $SIVE The announcement dropped Thursday at 6:30 PM after market close. Professional funds don’t wait for retail to react. Block trades happen OTC over the weekend. Buyer is agreed before the press release goes out. Bootstrap is already out. So Monday looks like this: → Retail sees the news → Retail panics and sells → Institutions buy the dip The selling pressure everyone is scared of is already gone. What actually remains after this weekend: → $12M debt off the balance sheet → 700M SEK in cash → Nasdaq listing in progress → Cleaner cap table

IMO this is double edged sword for $SIVE Negative effect for short term unless 140M$ gets absorbed quickly by institutions and retail, but it all depends on their exit strategy if they even are gonna sell their shares Positive effect for their financials, positioning and US Nasdaq listing. Personally i’m long on $SIVE and ignoring all noise. Sivers as company is getting stronger and nothing has changed.

One reason I respect Serenity is that he argues logically. (Remember not too long ago he made a post about TA?) I have similar issues with TA It is astrology when people claiming pattern matching is causal explanation. TA is the idea that charts "may" reflect supply, demand, positioning, and crowd psychology That idea exists in classic TA frameworks: Murphy, Dow Theory, Wyckoff, Edwards & Magee. They all treat price action as a way to observe market behavior Behavioral finance also supports the broader idea that markets are not perfectly rational. Kahneman & Tversky showed people behave differently under gains and losses. Barberis, Shleifer & Vishny model how investor sentiment can create underreaction and overreaction But this is where the leap happens Behavioral finance does not prove that a Fibonacci level, a lower low, or a support line reveals the actual psychological mechanism behind a move At best, TA observes a price pattern!!! It does not prove why that pattern happened. Especially with $SIVE, saying "I called the move from 73 to 49" skips the actual event in the middle: dilution news (INSIDE TRADING MUCH???) Unless the chart predicted the timing, size, price, and terms of the dilution, this is not clean TA validation It is correlation being dressed up as causation Even Lo, Mamaysky & Wang, one of the more serious academic attempts to test chart patterns, begin from the problem that traditional chart reading is highly subjective and often "in the eyes of the beholder" So yes, psychology matters in markets But "psychology matters" does not mean every line drawn on a chart has causal meaning. Read the literature yourself: Technical Analysis: Lo, Mamaysky & Wang — Foundations of Technical Analysis Behavioral Finance: Kahneman & Tversky — Prospect Theory Barberis, Shleifer & Vishny — A Model of Investor Sentiment Data-snooping critique: Sullivan, Timmermann & White — Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap One field studies chart patterns. The other studies investor psychology. They are not the same thing!!!

This practically means that theres so huge demand for CW DFB lasers that NVDA locked out DFB lasers supply by investing into LITE and COHR and therefore there is huge scrambling for the CW lasers and one of the solutions for companies like AMD and other hyperscalers could be VCSEL in a few years. BUT $SIVE and $AAOI lasers arent YET locked out by Nvidia so idk if enough people realise this how ENORMOUS demand there is coming. And it gets even better for Sivers because it can supply everyone who wants their lasers like GFS , Ayar Labs , JBL and one of the recent news Sivers got was partnership with GF SCALE GF Scale is the only certificated company fitting the OCI MSA-standard and OCI MSA consists of companies AMD, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI which are gonna use GF Scale supplied by CW DFB InP laser made by SIVE And ur still being bearish on this?

Incase if you already forgot these news about $SIVE Nasdaq Nordic Listed Options 🇸🇪 July 6, 2026: Official trading begins for standardized call/put options on Nasdaq Stockholm. This instantly unlocks major institutional hedging capabilities and explosive retail volume. T-REX 2X Long SIVE Daily Target ETF 🇺🇸 A formal SEC 485A filing has been submitted for a dedicated 2x leveraged daily ETF tracking $SIVE. Wall Street is aggressively making pure-play AI optical interconnects tradeable with maximum leverage. Fully Funded to Nasdaq US Dual-Listing Fresh off a SEK 700M capital raise with negligible 3.3% dilution, CEO Vickram Vathulya confirmed Sivers has entered the execution phase for its Nasdaq New York dual-listing.

CEO of $SIVE confirmed US Nasdaq listing is progressing. “We continue to make progress on all necessary steps with the intent to complete the listing process over the next few quarters.” So probably end of the 2026 / start of the 2027 He also confirmed “potential synergistic acquisitions” as a use of proceeds. It’s fun to speculate which company it could be, but i believe they might be qualifying Dutch InP-fab called SMART Photonics as another fab besides Win-Semi.