Outlier Capital(@outliercapx):JUST IN: The Win Semi update just closed the three questions everyone kept asking on $SIVE. WIN strengthened InP inventory, lean on Tier-1 international customers, keep 4” in production and are already process-testing 6” wafers. VCSEL and EML already in mass production. CW is a cert-cycle product — gradual H2’26, meaningful in 2027 and 2028. That’s $SIVE volume foundry. Then $LITE: NPO bigger than CPO, multi-wavelength external lasers raising ASPs, UHP still sold out. $SIVE whole photonics stack is multi-wavelength DFB arrays + SOAs for exactly that. Glasgow expansion + WIN + $1.2B pipeline all point at the same 2027 ramp. The bottleneck didn’t disappear. The foundry calendar just lined up with it. Bullish $SIVE! I am long, NFA. PS: Thanks for sharing @aleabitoreddit.

2026.09.23 16:04

JUST IN: The Win Semi update just closed the three questions everyone kept asking on $SIVE. WIN strengthened InP inventory, lean on Tier-1 international customers, keep 4” in production and are already process-testing 6” wafers. VCSEL and EML already in mass production. CW is a cert-cycle product — gradual H2’26, meaningful in 2027 and 2028. That’s $SIVE volume foundry. Then $LITE: NPO bigger than CPO, multi-wavelength external lasers raising ASPs, UHP still sold out. $SIVE whole photonics stack is multi-wavelength DFB arrays + SOAs for exactly that. Glasgow expansion + WIN + $1.2B pipeline all point at the same 2027 ramp. The bottleneck didn’t disappear. The foundry calendar just lined up with it. Bullish $SIVE! I am long, NFA. PS: Thanks for sharing @aleabitoreddit.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

2026.09.23 14:14

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.