Memory: Our Tech Tour Suggests Intact DRAM
• Recent supply chain tour + SEMICON 2026 point to stronger DRAM outlook than feared. Turning positive on DRAM sector after prior bearish notes on July 3.
• DRAM solid: We believe the US hyperscaler inventories low and likely to be lowered further. Blended DRAM px expected ~10% QoQ in 4Q26 (vs high-teens in 3Q26).
• NAND soft: High-teen QoQ pricing in 3Q26, then softening to low single-digit in 4Q26 on weaker mobile demand + elevated inventories.
• HBM firm: Constructive 2027 view on tight supply + Chinese GPU demand. HBM4 asking ranging from $2.9-4.5/Gb and we expect the final pricing to be $3.5-4.0/Gb. However, still favor 8-Hi adoption but low probability of 4-Hi GPU variants. Vera SOCAMM de-spec remains, to 64GB by 1Q27.
• SEMICON / NVHBM: MTK + Nvidia collab on NVHBM highlighted. Shifts base-die design value toward Nvidia (NVDA) and MTK (2454 TT). cHBM/zHBM progress noted during SEMICON
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