Summary of MTK (2454) Update - 100% EMIB, 100% Share in v9
•Street-high TPU estimates → raised TP to NT$6,650 (from NT$6,420)
•MTK fell 7% yesterday on noise around potential v8t delay, EMIB/substrate supply issues & v9 share-loss fears — we take the opposite view
•v8t/Zebrafish remains intact; demand well above 2027 CoWoS allocation of 180k, suggesting extended life cycle vol.
•EMIB-T / substrate yields & supply tracking better than expected, at ~50% currently. Yield rate in every stage in report
•EMIB Substrate delivery in small-volume ~100k mid-2027 → mass-volume by 4Q27
💯 100% EMIB-T for v9 (Humufish, Triggerfish). on-track substrate yields + suppliers dedicated support. Also no reason for TSM to be a back-up or 2nd source.
💯 100% market share in v9 (Humufish for training, Triggerfish for inferencing). We expect no other v9/2nm projects during the time period
•Life-cycle volume for v9 expected >5m (vs bears at >2m)
•2nd ASIC project (likely SpaceX ASIC, not AI6) more visibility expected in 4Q26
•Datacenter ASIC forecast raised to NT$2.8bn / $18.6bn / NT$75.7bn
•Near-term watch: engineering tape-out in Nov (passing bar not high; chipset testing at TSMC largely on track)
•For v10: still expect MTK to win major SKU Icefish (AMD+MRVL or AVGO competing for Merope)
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