My prediction on the Cybercab FMVSS situation: Back in February, Lars Moravy was asked by Farzad whether Tesla would apply for the 2,500-vehicle FMVSS exemption. His answer was simply: “No.” After that, speculation spread that Tesla would skip the exemption entirely and instead self-certify the Cybercab as FMVSS compliant. The two approaches are fundamentally incompatible. Applying for the exemption is essentially admitting that the vehicle cannot be certified under the existing FMVSS rules. Later, people noticed an FMVSS certification label on the Cybercab displayed in Tesla’s booth, making this theory seem all but confirmed. However, when Cybercab test vehicles began appearing on public roads, they all carried manufacturer plates. That raised doubts about whether Tesla would actually follow through with self-certification. Today, we saw the first Cybercab with a regular Texas license plate. That means Tesla has completed the necessary steps to self-certify the vehicle. It can now be legally sold to customers and deployed in the Robotaxi fleet to transport paying passengers. But this isn’t the end of the story. Current FMVSS regulations still require pedals and rearview mirrors, and the Cybercab has neither. Strictly speaking, that would seem to make FMVSS self-certification impossible. The key issue is that the Cybercab is something the regulations never anticipated: a vehicle with no human driver. FMVSS was written for vehicles operated by drivers. That leaves room for Tesla to argue from a broader, common-sense interpretation of the regulations. In other words: “Why would a vehicle with no driver need pedals or rearview mirrors?” I believe that’s the argument Tesla is prepared to make. After the Cybercab launches, NHTSA could review Tesla’s self-certification and determine that it was inappropriate. If that happens, the agency could order recalls, impose fines, or require corrective actions. By then, however, Cybercab production could already be ramping rapidly, and FMVSS revisions for autonomous vehicles may be close to completion. From Tesla’s perspective, it may be financially and strategically better to move forward now and deal with any regulatory challenges if they arise, rather than wait for the entire FMVSS framework to be updated. Another factor is that the current administration appears to be relatively supportive of Elon Musk and Tesla, which could also work in Tesla’s favor. That said, I think Tesla is well aware of the regulatory risk. My guess is that they’ll increase Cybercab production cautiously until the FMVSS revisions are officially finalized. That’s my view on the Cybercab FMVSS situation.