Post-mortem on $PUMP: - Was very bullish at 4bn and moderately bullish at 6.5bn. Was looking to size X% at 4 and about 0.6X at 6.5--this was mostly fine IMHO given the extent of demand during the ICO. - Existence of pre-market perps changed the dynamics quite a bit. It became hard to differentiate "true" ICO demand vs. hedging demand--how much of the buying/oversubscription was looking to hedge vs outright long. I overindexed on the demand and thought the pre-market price was actually somewhat suppressed given hedging flows were pushing it down. This was very wrong--sustained positive funding on HL pre-launch and all perps post-launch indicated otherwise. - Believed most of the spot longs that weren't long-term holders would've hedged out around 6-7bn given favourable funding + extent of time it traded up there + closeness to most people's targets. This was wrong--tough to know a priori. - As a corollary, this trade became incredibly crowded. Every participant was long with the same target (8bn ez). Crowded/consensus trades are fine to take as long as further flows are coming (beneficial if those additional flows are exogenous to the cohort that is crowding). Smart-ish and regular money had already allocated to PUMP via perps even after ICO and there was no chance outside dollars were going to come into this product. @AlwaysBeThinkin about your exit liquidity. - My price targets were looking to derisk between 7-8 given the memetic consensus around 8. This was too aggressive and that 7-7.2bn rough resistance level from pre-market was a good level to take some off. - Risk-on markets are good for beta, but SOL was locally lagging and ETH chadding double digit percentages per day sucks attention and liquidity further away from a new launch that had to work through substantial ICO supply. I am 90+% out of the position now. Think it has legs to run but opportunity cost of holding this is too high in this environment. I averaged in around low 6s and closed most around mid-4s. Took a big drawdown on this; was able to cover it and more given the current environment but put a sizable dent in the book. h/t @0x_Leo_ - he wrote some very good reflections that inspired me to share mine. Onwards and upwards.