Dan Hendrycks(@DanHendrycks ):AI models are dramatically improving at IQ tests (70 IQ → 120), yet they don't feel vastly smarter than two years ago. At their current level of intelligence, rehashing existing human writings will work better than leaning on their own intelligence to produce novel analysis. Empirical work ("Lotka's law") shows that useful originality rises steeply only at high intelligence levels. Consequently, if they gain another 10 IQ points, AIs will still produce slop. But if they increase by another 30, they may cross a threshold and start providing useful original insights.

2025.05.11 04:59

AI models are dramatically improving at IQ tests (70 IQ → 120), yet they don't feel vastly smarter than two years ago. At their current level of intelligence, rehashing existing human writings will work better than leaning on their own intelligence to produce novel analysis. Empirical work ("Lotka's law") shows that useful originality rises steeply only at high intelligence levels. Consequently, if they gain another 10 IQ points, AIs will still produce slop. But if they increase by another 30, they may cross a threshold and start providing useful original insights.