Last night, Bitget hosted an event in Hong Kong. I got back to my place around 11pm and managed to catch a private, invite-only talk by JP Morgan for their private banking clients. The speaker was Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at JPM. He discussed the impact of tariffs on the global landscape and across asset classes. One data point he shared caught my attention: historically, whenever the market drops 15%, blindly buying the S&P 500 has had an 84% chance of generating profit, with an average annualized return of 12%. Overall, Michael didn’t really provide much actionable insight—he mostly explained the ripple effects of tariffs: adding tariffs tends to cause sharp market declines and recessions, but any sign of compromise often leads to a rebound. A takeaway was that Trump is highly unpredictable and could do anything. As for Bitcoin, my view is: right now, tariffs are still just a bargaining tool on the negotiation table. What happens over the next two weeks—how talks unfold and how tariffs are imposed—will be crucial. Once this period of risk passes, BTC still stands out as one of the better options among global risk assets. BTW, I bought some BTC yesterday. Good night.💤