24 y.o prop trading firm & media founder I Invest in good businesses in the long term and exploit the market inefficiency in the short term. building @bwenews
Pricing of small marketcap coins is pretty simple, you don’t need a Stanford degree to figure it out:
- Have Binance perp = $10m basic manipulation value
- memecoin = $3m basic exit liquidity value over retails
- have coinbase spot = $5m basic liquidity value from USA market
- have Upbit KRW spot = $10m basic liquidity value from Korean apes
So if a coin is a memecoin and have Binance perp, its intrinsic value = ~$13m
If it’s a coin with Coinbase spot + Upbit KRW spot + binance perp, its intrinsic value is $25m
Buy when it falls below its intrinsic value, sell when some cabal starts the run.
I opened a Bybit sub account with 100k as margin and wanna gamble with it. Longed 160k MOODENG at 0.215, my liquidation price is 0.11.
Reason why I open this sub account is because I don’t wanna check the price or PnL during this gamble, it’s either 1B or liquidation.
Thesis: PEPE in 2023 topped at 1.4B market cap, and I think MOODENG is the pepe of 2025.
Note:
- 100k is a very very tiny percent of my net worth and I’m not a brainless ape
- I will follow market trend with 4h,8h level of indicators
- Pray for Binance to list MOODENG spot this week(and they should)
Allahu Akbar
Entered $200k into KOMA at 0.0185 avg just now, thesis:
- smallest marketcap meme coin on Binance perp right now, with marketcap of $11m and increasing combined open interest of $6m on Binance/Bybit/Gate, I think it has mm value for some cabal group
- around $2.7m of KOMA is team's locked coin, so the actual circulating marketcap is around $9m
- The current market's narrative is similar to 2022-2023 where we had DWF Labs season: people favors tiny marketcap coin controlled by cabal and can deliver big green candles (BROCCOLIF3B pumped 10x recently, and many tiny marketcap coin with Binance perp did couple x pump today)
KOMA can dump 30% from here and I'm ok to lost that amount of my trade, don't follow my trade or you might be me/other players' exit liquidity
In my opinion, the safest trade in crypto right now is the SOL/XRP rate ratio trade. I've entered $1m of this position as a long-term investment to manage some of my spare funds in crypto since yields elsewhere are so low right now. I plan to hold this position for about 1-2 years.
Buy SOL spot > use as collateral of USDT perp > short XRP with the same dollar value.
thesis: XRP is 2x marketcap of SOL, but be like 10% of Solana's utility or even less, XRP is more like an American Dream memecoin. In the long run, the price would match the intrinsic value of the coin and I'm betting on SOL will flip XRP.
Disclaimer:
I'm fine with losing 50% of my position value and I'm ok to hold this position for 1-2 years. Do your own research and don't be reckless.