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刚添加了一个“宏观简报”,每天早晨推送给我,获取所有宏观数据/新闻/卖方报告后,生成。 看起来质量已经相当好了。 Daily Macro Brief | 2026-03-08 ======================================== ### 每日宏观研究简报 **1. 今日焦点** 地缘政治风险(伊朗局势)成为主导市场的核心变量,其影响已从避险情绪蔓延至大宗商品(铝、原油)和通胀预期。市场正从对利率的单一关注,转向对“滞胀”情景的定价。 **2. 关键事件** - 伊朗冲突升级推高原油及铝价至多年高位,直接冲击全球供应链与通胀前景。 - 中国通胀数据因节日效应和油价冲击而走高,加剧了市场对“输入性通胀”的担忧。 - 中国国债期货因油价冲击创年内最大跌幅,显示利率市场对通胀的即时反应。 - 高收益债利差加速走阔,表明信用市场对经济前景的担忧正在超越单纯的避险情绪。 - 比特币与原油呈现负相关走势,凸显其作为风险资产的属性在宏观冲击下被重新定价。 **3. 信号解读** - **流动性结构分化**:联储资产负债表扩张与逆回购工具使用量上升相互抵消,净流动性看似中性,但内部结构显示资金正从市场前端撤向隔夜工具,实为隐性收紧。 - **衰退交易深化**:国债收益率下行与高收益利差加速走阔同时发生,这并非单纯的避险,而是市场开始交易“经济放缓下的信用风险上升”,信号指向性更强。 - **波动率异常收缩**:在重大地缘冲突背景下,波动率指数(VIX)信号却显示收缩,这种背离可能意味着市场尚未完全定价事件的长期影响,或波动率被短期技术性卖盘压制。 **4. 历史类比** 当前环境(Risk-Off、信用收紧、地缘冲击)与**2018年第四季度**最为相似。当时在美联储加息末期,叠加增长担忧,市场经历了剧烈的去风险化:标普500指数在2018年Q4下跌约14%,高收益债利差大幅走阔超200个基点。与当前类似,油价在当时也因供应担忧而波动,但最终需求衰退预期成为主导。 **5. 资产含义** - **股票**:在“滞胀”担忧和信用条件收紧的双重压力下,股市的盈利预期和估值将同时承压,周期股和未盈利成长股面临更大考验。 - **利率**:短期通胀预期推高短端利率,但衰退担忧压制长端,收益率曲线可能加速扁平化甚至倒挂。 - **加密货币**:与原油的负相关及整体风险偏好收缩,使其短期内难以摆脱作为高贝塔风险资产的交易逻辑,独立叙事暂时退居次要。
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3天时间,让 opus 4.6 做了一个“刻学产品”。 对 btc 的宏观面/技术面/基本面/与美股关系/山寨情况,进行拟合,把当前市场状况跟历史上各时期进行对比分析,结果如下图所示。 这种刻舟求剑,ai 已经可以做的很漂亮了。
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【關係轉折】被問及法國加入「加沙和平委員會」時 特朗普:馬克龍很快就會下台 在談到法國總統馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)拒絕加入「加沙和平委員會」時,美國總統特朗普(Donald Trump)回應稱,「沒有人想要他加入,因為他很快就會下台。」但隨即不久他便再次改口。
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特朗普刚刚骂了他自己任命的两个大法官🤣笑死我了 然后说"我有另一种方式搞关税,只是更慢" 所以关税还没死呢,是换条路重来!!! 市场以为靴子落地 但这人根本没穿靴子🐂 另外他说共和党大法官"投票反对我就是反对美国" 司法独立这个词,他大概从来没想过要用 下一个雷:出生公民权 他已经提前预警了 不过短期来看对风险资产其实偏中性甚至小利好—— 关税延期=谈判窗口打开 但别以为不确定性消失了 只是变得更难预测了 读特朗普的帖子是我目前最重要的宏观工作之一,不是玩笑 #Tariffs# #Trump# #Macro# #BTC# #SupremeCourt#
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President Trump posts on TruthSocial: I “Love” Justice Neil Gorsuch! He’s a really smart and good man, but he voted against me, and our Country, on Tariffs, a devastating move. How do I reconcile this? So bad, and hurtful to our Country. I have, likewise, always liked and respected Amy Coney Barrett, but the same thing with her. They were appointed by me, and yet have hurt our Country so badly! I do not believe they meant to do so, but their decision on Tariffs cost the United States 159 Billion Dollars that we have to pay back to enemies, and people, companies, and Countries, that have been ripping us off for years. It’s hardly believable! They could have solved that situation with a “tiny” sentence, “Any money paid by others to the United States does not have to be paid back.” Why wouldn’t they have done so? With certain Republican Nominated Justices that we have on the Supreme Court, the Democrats don’t really need to “PACK THE COURT” any longer. In fact, I should be the one wanting to PACK THE COURT! I’m working so hard to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and then people that I appointed have shown so little respect to our Country, and its people. What is the reason for this? They have to do the right thing, but it’s really OK for them to be loyal to the person that appointed them to “almost” the highest position in the land, that is, a Justice of the United States Supreme Court. Democrat Justices always remain true to the people that honored them for that very special Nomination. They don’t waver, no matter how good or bad a case may be, but Republican Justices often go out of their way to oppose me, because they want to show how “independent” or, “above it all,” they are. I got elected in a Landslide, including winning the Popular Vote, all seven Swing States, an Electoral College “clobbering,” and all U.S. Counties, by 86%, 2,750 to 525. I choose people to help our Country, not to hurt it, and now, based on what I witnessed recently by being the first President in History to attend a Supreme Court session (Which fact was not even recognized or acknowledged, out of respect for the position of President, by the Court — Something which did not go unnoticed by the Fake News Media!), they will be ruling against us on Birthright Citizenship, making us the only Country in the World that practices this unsustainable, unsafe, and incredibly costly DISASTER. I don’t want loyalty, but I do want and expect it for our Country. Yes, I have another way of doing Tariffs, but it is far slower, and more laborious than what was just determined, in a close decision, to be “illegal” or “unconstitutional,” with three powerful, and highly accurate, dissents! Well, maybe Neil, and Amy, just had a really bad day, but our Country can only handle so many decisions of that magnitude before it breaks down, and cracks!!! Sometimes decisions have to be allowed to use Good, Strong, Common Sense as a guide. A negative ruling on Birthright Citizenship, on top of the recent Supreme Court Tariff catastrophe, is not Economically sustainable for the United States of America! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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醒醒吧,所有人都在盯着分钟图,却没看到历史正在被翻篇。 耗时数年的巨型“杯柄形态”已经彻底闭环:突破已完成,回踩已确认,结构已锁死。这种周期的突破从不以 20% 为目标,它的惯性是数倍的涨幅。 $220,000 是这一轮的起步价。大多数人还在犹豫是否追高,而真正的猎人早已在发射台就位。 #BTC# #MacroStructure# #PriceAction#
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macOS 菜单栏小工具,把各家 API 服务的用量配额集中展示,通过插件接入智谱、MiniMax、DeepSeek、Tavily、Codex 等平台
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macOS 三代拓展坞Dock 你更喜欢哪版本?
Macbook 出门当充电宝也挺好用
macOSicons:超 3 万枚免费 Mac应用图标下载,拯救桌面强迫症
Microsoft 365 团队宣布即日起 @OneDrive 网页版为 #Markdown# 格式提供原生支持,用户可以直接在浏览器中查看和编辑 Markdown 文件。 现在用户查看文件时将正确显示格式而不是 ### 等格式符号,微软提供表格样式、复选、代码块、链接等,代码块也支持代码高亮。 查看详情:
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