当一个公司的股票在IPO时如果有很多倍的超额认购时，通常它在上市后的6个月锁定期內股票会跌到它的IPO价格以下，至少是会跌到大多数拿不到IPO配股的零售投资人在IPO当天(6月12日）能在市场上买到的价格以下。SpaceX的IPO价是150, 但IPO当天的收盘价是160, 最高价曾冲到176, 所以对大多数人來说买到的价格是在160 - 176之间, 如果在后來几天买的，价格会更高，6月16号最高位时曾超过225。所以已经进场又沒有拿到IPO配股的人（絕大多数人）应该是在160-225之间进去的，昨天的收市价是154.60. 很多人买SpaceX以为是买了一个spacecraft 公司，但絕大多數的人了解一个公司都是听別人或者各种各样的被认为是专家的人的解釋，很少有人去直接读它的招股书。我在它IPO前仔细读了，招股书在”Our Market Opportunity”那个 section里清楚的写到它有三大业务：Space, Connectivity, AI. 它声称它的”total addressable market”(TAM) 是28.5 trillion, 但其中Space的TAM是370 billion (约占total TAM的1 ％), Connectivity的TAM是1.6 trillion (約占6%), 而AI的TAM是$26.5 trillion (占高达93％！), 也就是说，你以为你买的是一家space公司，但你实际买的是一家赌AI的公司:) SpaceX真正占统治地位的Space和Connectivy二个业务的TAM加起來才7%。如果买SpaceX赌的是AI, 那么问题來了 - 它的AI模型Grok至少目前已经明显不在如OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind的第一梯队，那么只是作为一家公司凭什么它值得以94 x price-to-revenue ratio的IPO作价上市 (是已經很贵的Tesla的price-to-revenue ratio的5倍!)? 在Elon Musk大主教的魅力面前，最sophisticated 投资人也会失去理性：） Elon His Eminence 是史上最伟大的创业家和创新者，他的很多使命最终常常会得以实现，但他往往对实现的时间过于乐观。所以即使是他，终究也不能违反基本的经济学定律。

昨晚暴雪嘉年華開幕式上宣佈的重磅消息： - 《星際爭霸》全新開放世界射擊遊戲，由前育碧《孤島驚魂》系列負責人丹·海伊負責開發，2030 年面市； - 《暗黑破壞神 5》公佈，預定 2029 年發售； 其他消息還包括： - 《風暴英雄》新增虛空使者薩拉塔斯； - 網飛正在製作《暗黑破壞神》動畫劇集，同時《守望先鋒》和《魔獸世界》動畫劇集也在籌備中； - 《守望先鋒》公佈新英雄吸血鬼 Doctrine； - 《暗黑破壞神 4》將在 9 月 15 日登陸 NS2； - 亞馬遜女戰士明年回歸《暗黑破壞神 4》； - 《爐石傳說》明年新增武僧職業，也就是熊貓人； - 《魔獸世界》第十二個資料片《最後的泰坦》將在明年上線； - 《魔獸爭霸 3 重鑄版》今天發售全新資料片《遺落的王國》； - 《魔獸世界：无限》是一款新型的懷舊服，11 月 4 日上線。 #Blizzcon# #Starcraft# #Diablo# #WorldOfWarcraftForever#

#为什么是中国# #WhyChina# The Global Logic of China's Economic Growth in the First Half of 2026: A 4.7% GDP Increase 2026年上半年GDP增长4.7%：中国经济增长的全球逻辑 According to the latest semi-annual report, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.6 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices, in line with the annual growth target. Against a backdrop of intertwined international complexities and volatilities, China's economic performance is commendable. Yet, a closer look at the data reveals that the logic underpinning China's economic growth is being reshaped. (I) At the Industry Level, Notable Highlights Emerge: First, new quality productive forces are being cultivated and strengthened at an accelerated pace.** In the first half of the year, industrial production grew robustly. The value-added output of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.3%, both outpacing the overall growth rate of industrial output above a designated scale. This underscores a clear trend toward a high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated industrial structure. Looking at specific products, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots, and other products emblematic of new quality productive forces surged. The average daily token call volume has reached hundreds of trillions, showcasing the vitality and potential of the digital and intelligent economies. Second, new growth drivers are accelerating to take on a leading role. Preliminary estimates suggest that new growth drivers—encompassing high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services—contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first half of the year. The economy's distinct shift toward a higher quality and more optimized structure is evident, and this overall trend is accelerating. For instance, industries related to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, have all maintained high growth rates exceeding 30%, vividly illustrating the pace of China's industrial upgrading. Third, confidence on the investment front is on the rise. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries grew by 4.6% year-on-year. Notably, investment in the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, and equipment, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5%, respectively. Investment structure best reflects market expectations. The increasing "new economy content" in investments signals an acceleration in the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. Investment in intellectual property products grew by 9.4%, indicating that enterprises are placing greater emphasis on R&D and innovation. This suggests that technological advancement is not simply about capacity expansion but about qualitative change driven by innovation. (II) Observing a Major Economy Requires Looking Beyond the Immediate Figures to the Long-term Trajectory. Behind the "new economy content" of the semi-annual report lies China's ongoing transformation from a global manufacturing hub to a global center of innovation. At the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos), observers noted a new phenomenon: a host of unicorn companies are heading to China. They are establishing R&D centers, regional headquarters, and deeply integrating into China's innovation and industrial chains—shifting from "produced in China" to "created in China." So, why China? Economist Justin Yifu Lin, in his book *Demystifying the Chinese Economy, touched upon the theory of the "speed of technological change." He argues that the essence of the industrial revolution is not just the application of new technologies, but more fundamentally, the ever-accelerating pace of technological change. Since the mid-18th century, starting with the steam engine reshaping the textile industry, the snowball of technological change has grown, rapidly sweeping through industries like chemicals and automobiles, ultimately redrawing the geographical map of great power competition. Looking at China today, the trajectory of accelerating technological change is equally clear. A leading enterprise can drive an entire industry, which in turn can boost a whole region. These burgeoning industrial clusters, growing from saplings to forests, not only enhance production efficiency and invigorate market vitality but also effectively improve development quality and resilience. For example, specialized and sophisticated "little giant" enterprises above a designated scale in Beijing, through deep cultivation of innovation chains, supply chain collaboration, and international expansion, have become "connecting points" and "accelerators" for the dual circulation strategy. More importantly, emerging industrial clusters possess powerful spillover effects. The rapid rise of new energy vehicles is not only reshaping the automotive industry but also driving transformations in chips, software, and energy networks, allowing more sectors to gain value from efficiency improvements. The swift advancements in AI and biomedicine are sparking a "gentle qualitative change" in people's livelihoods, significantly enhancing the sense of fulfillment and well-being through smarter, more affordable products and more livable environments. (III) Looking from the First Half to the Full Year, China's Development Momentum Remains Positive. Of course, during this critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, China's economy still faces lingering issues and new challenges. Some core areas are still grappling with "bottleneck" technologies, certain high-tech industries face external risks of "decoupling" and supply chain disruptions, and "involution"-style competition affects the new energy market ecosystem. However, most of these are issues arising from development and transition, and they can be addressed with effort. The supporting conditions and fundamental trends for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged. China's economic journey toward a newer, higher-quality model is itself a process of encountering new problems and solving them along the way. By maintaining confidence, proceeding steadily, and balancing both qualitative improvements and quantitative growth, China's industries are poised to be brimming with dynamism, and the Chinese economy will continue to advance steadily and sustainably. #China# #Jiangxi# #JiangxiEconomy# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

聊聊RKLB最新的ATM发行股票计划，RKLB在昨天签了新的股票分配协议，以ATM方式出售普通股，总额最高30亿美金，从25年3月以来RKLB已经4次ATM增发股票，如果全部操作完毕总计40多接近50亿美金的融资。确实是持续性地从市场上拿钱了。大家讨论很多，聊聊个人看法： 1、时机很好，当下随着spacex上市临近，未来一段时间太空经济板块关注度比较高，趁着市场行情好增发囤积一笔大钱，从企业经营层面上是非常明智的操作，趁估值走高行情大好时把资产负债表做厚； 2、为什么要融这么多钱？ 公司提交给SEC的文件写的很标准，用于增长、收购以及未来运营支出等。个人看就两点 1）为未来进一步并购和垂直整合储备弹药， rklb过去的发展历程并购还是很多的，这家公司是有非常丰富并购整合经验的，过往的并购也补齐了很多维度上企业的竞争力。 公司刚完成 Mynaric 收购，补强激光光通信能力并建立欧洲业务足迹；又签了 Motiv 收购协议，目的包括把太阳阵列驱动组件、精密运动控制等供应受限/成本高的卫星部件内制化。 这说明管理层的意图不是单纯填补亏损，而是沿着“launch + spacecraft + components + national security”的端到端空间基础设施平台继续扩张。 2）为Neutron发射和国防项目增加资本缓冲 公司一季度同时披露了 31 个新的 Electron/HASTE 合同、5 个新的 Neutron 发射合同，发射订单数已经超过 2025 年全年；还提到 Space Based Interceptor、MACH-TB、Neutron 首飞硬件集成和 Archimedes 发动机资格认证等项目。 这些项目的共同点是：前期投入、营运资本、库存、工程冗余都很吃现金。 足够深厚的资金储备能让公司在竞标和交付大项目时更有底气，国防和星座客户在看供应商的长期交付能力，资金实力也是很重要的考量标准。 3、当然股东短期会难受 特别是昨天这次粗略对应约4%的普通股，相当于我们的持仓一下子被稀释了4%，所以也看到不少比较激动的言论，短期股价也承受。之前每次增发也都导致了股价回调 但股价回调可能也是短期买点，这个时点个人不会减仓。还是去年底这里 → 海量卫星 → 丰富数据/服务 → 新商业模式（如太空数据中心、零重力制造）→ 更多投资与应用。这里面rklb并不是spacex第二，而是有自己的独特竞争力。这些竞争优势的构建在过去很多年都是花时间和大量的资本构建起来的。 个人角度，是等spacex上市交易后走了一波行情（也会带动板块整体走高），这个时候可能是太空经济的卖点，大概率会在哪个时候择机减些仓位。个人看法，供参考