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Internet Child
@0xinternetchild
Decoding global chaos through prediction markets. From Ukraine fronts to Middle East bets – insider vibes on wars, elections, and tariffs on @ZEITFinance
加入 December 2024
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WildBerries #1# biggest warehouse just destroyed by Ukraine ! This brings the total to 18/30 of WB's top 30 biggest warehouse in the country destroyed. + 3 badly damaged. Odds on the "Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027" market have pumped 2x on the news (10% -> 20%). It's counter intuitive but think it's actually a good time to buy some more NO and secure +23% return. here is why : - Ukraine has focused it's attacks on the biggest warehouses (easier juicier targets), but they still only about 20% of WB's total capacity. Hitting many smaller ones will be harder - Destroyed inventory belongs to sellers, not Wildberries. They conveniently update their ToS 1 week before the first attack to NOT compensate sellers for bombing related inventory loss - Wildberries is too big to fail. They employ too many people. Russia can never let them go bankrupt. The authorities and state linked banks (VTB, Sberbank) have already been discussing support measures like preferential loans and debt restructuring. So they won't go bankrupt anytime soon. I'm buying more NO with confidence
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