Robinhood Chain Recap: June–July
Since mid-June, I’ve been following Robinhood’s official testnet, and there have honestly been a lot of ups and downs.
At the time, I got access to the official RPC through Popdev and started researching and trading memes being created on Robinhood Chain before the ecosystem became widely known.
In the beginning, I bought several tokens, including Democratize, CashCat, and Marian, while researching their narratives and the people connected to them.
I also looked into various narratives, including the political and business connections between Robinhood and Trump, as well as the direction in which Robinhood might expand the chain going forward.
As time passed, I compared the growth speed of each community and the potential for their narratives to expand. Among them, I concluded that CashCat had the strongest narrative.
Based on how quickly the community was forming, how widely the narrative was spreading, and its symbolic connection to Robinhood, I gradually increased my CashCat position until I held roughly 1.7% of the total supply.
After mainnet launched, the market cap fell from around 10M to 2M. During that period, I continued buying and selling across roughly four wallets while maintaining a total position of around 1.5% to 1.7%.
At the time, I thought that if no additional catalyst appeared, I might have to exit somewhere around the 10M to 20M range. Still, I decided to remain patient and wait as long as possible.
Then Robinhood’s CEO followed CashCat, followed by several people around him, and that marked the beginning of the real Robinhood Chain season.
I started gradually taking profits from around a 100M market cap, and by the time it reached approximately 220M, I had taken profit on most of my position, leaving only around 0.45% of the supply.
Then an unexpected variable appeared.
Noxa’s website suddenly went offline.
At first, I assumed it was simply maintenance or a temporary issue. However, contrary to expectations, Noxa announced that it was effectively ending active operations and would continue only in an archived form.
It also announced that it would give creators 100% of the fees instead of retaining its previous share.
On the surface, this could be viewed as a positive development because more revenue would go directly to creators.
Personally, however, I could not interpret it as bullish.
A platform generating a significant amount of fee revenue suddenly switched to archive mode, while it also became clear that the fee structure could be changed by the operator at any time.
There was also no sufficient explanation regarding the website shutdown or the decision to stop active operations.
In the end, I did not think the core issue was simply how much of the fees would go to creators.
Personally, I felt that Noxa’s response had seriously damaged the basis of trust I had in the platform and its operations.
When an unexpected variable appears in a trade and I cannot properly understand the situation, I tend to reduce risk first.
Based on that decision, I sold the rest of my CashCat position at around a 170M to 180M market cap.
After that, I also closed all of my Noxa-related positions, including 4663 and TERENCE.
One of the main narratives behind 4663 was that it had been created by a Noxa developer and had frequently been promoted by Noxa.
However, once Noxa had effectively ended active platform operations, I did not believe that narrative could continue in a healthy or sustainable way.
For that reason, I closed every position connected to Noxa.
Some people have said that I sold 4663 near the top, but in reality, I exited at around a 2.5M to 3M market cap.
I believed that the risk of the narrative being damaged was greater than the possibility of further upside.
After reassessing Robinhood Chain, it increasingly seemed to me that Robinhood’s CEO and other key figures were shifting their attention away from memes and toward RWAs, bonds, and tokenized stocks.
For now, I have only placed a few small speculative positions related to those narratives and am watching how things develop.
My approximate overall profits were:
CashCat: around $2M to $2.1M in total profit
Other tokens: around $50K to $100K in profit
(including 4663, 530A, and several others)
The biggest lesson I took from trading on Robinhood Chain was that deeply understanding a narrative and having the patience to wait is far more important than simply buying before everyone else.
At the same time, no matter how strong a token or its community may appear, if trust in the underlying platform and infrastructure collapses, the entire thesis needs to be reconsidered.
I was also reminded once again that when circumstances change, your judgment must change with them.
When an unexpected variable appears and I cannot fully understand the situation, reducing risk is better than continuing to force a hopeful interpretation.
I’ll probably be traveling on Monday, so I may not be able to trade much for a while.
Until then, I’ll likely trade on Base for a bit.
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