After the Midterms: The Scarcity Trade Is Over Markets are still priced for scarcity and endless disruption—higher rates, $200 oil, and geopolitical disorder that never ends. After the midterms, that narrative breaks. Political incentives shift from demonstrating chaos to delivering results ahead of 2028. Expensive energy, unaffordable housing, and punishing financing costs are electoral liabilities, not assets. Stabilization, investment, and lower inflation become the priority. The call is straightforward: the U.S. Treasury curve steepens toward a 100-basis-point 2s10s spread, with the 10-year falling near 4% and the two-year toward 3%. Oil sells off. Productivity-led growth takes hold as the economy escapes secular stagnation on the model of the post-World War II expansion. Simultaneously, a crypto supercycle emerges, comparable in scale to the commodity boom that followed China’s WTO entry. These are not separate bets. They share a common foundation: abundance—more productive capacity, cheaper intelligence, and financial infrastructure that mobilizes capital more efficiently. Wall Street is still underwriting persistent scarcity. The opportunity lies in its erosion. Intelligence has infinite demand; the constraint is no longer technology or capital, but the outdated frameworks pricing the old world.