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Matt Dratch
@DratchCap
Macro Equity PM | Dartmouth Fball ’08 “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” Views expressed are solely my own and not on behalf of my employer.
加入 December 2010
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Elon saying lots of memory comes on in China in 2028, yet in Aug he described a compounding 10x supply demand imbalance (below). The Chinese better do a lot of building to matter…. “Then look at the rate at which logic and memory is being produced. One must always consider a limiting factor here. Limiting factor currently is memory. The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry. But ask yourself, is the demand increasing by 20% a year? No. The demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So if you’ve got demand increasing much faster than supply, then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases; it does not decrease.”
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