Regarding the Paris temperature market incidents, people mention two suspected instances of manipulation on April 6 and April 15.
April 6: The temperature suddenly spiked in the evening and fluctuated up and down for over an hour. This spike resulted in the account “Kyrgyzhydromet” making $16.5k. The incident was discussed in a French meteorological forum and attributed to maintenance. I believe no manipulation occurred that day. The winning account is actually my alt, I noticed the temperature fluctuations early and bought undervalued shares before others reacted.
April 15: The temperature again spiked suddenly, but only for a single reading before immediately dropping back to its previous level. The account “xX25Xx” made $21k. Unlike April 6, these purchases were made well before the spike. This, combined with the nature of the spike, leads me and many others to believe that manipulation may indeed have taken place.
A Polymarket staff member has confirmed that the current airport will be replaced with another one.
If manipulation did occur, I hope the French authorities investigate the matter and identify those responsible.
Attached below is an image of the spike on April 15.
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