Jeffrey P. Snider(@JeffSnider_EDU):The Fed has a story: labor market resilient, oil prices rising, so inflation risk is back on the table. There is just one problem. That story only holds if you look at one number and ignore everything else. The official unemployment rate says fine. The establishment survey, housing, and consumer sentiment all say something very different. An entire year with essentially no job growth does not scream resilient. So when oil prices rise on top of a labor market that is actually fragile, that is not the setup for inflation. It is the setup for demand destruction. Two readings of the same economy. One is a theory. One is showing up in the data.

2026.09.09 03:30

The Fed has a story: labor market resilient, oil prices rising, so inflation risk is back on the table. There is just one problem. That story only holds if you look at one number and ignore everything else. The official unemployment rate says fine. The establishment survey, housing, and consumer sentiment all say something very different. An entire year with essentially no job growth does not scream resilient. So when oil prices rise on top of a labor market that is actually fragile, that is not the setup for inflation. It is the setup for demand destruction. Two readings of the same economy. One is a theory. One is showing up in the data.

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